Tag Archives: Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin Price Analysis – One More Triangle Bottom

Bitcoin  Price Analysis -  One More Triangle Bottom

Bitcoin Price Analysis – One More Triangle Bottom

Bitcoin broke below a previous triangle consolidation but may be finding support at a larger one.

Bitcoin made a triangle breakdown earlier on but seems to be finding some support at a larger triangle bottom. Price bounced off the $3,800 area but is making another test and might be attempting another break.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, bitcoin could slide by the same height as this chart formation, which spans $3,500 to $4,600.

RSI is still heading lower to reflect the presence of bearish pressure. However, the oscillator is nearing the oversold region to reflect exhaustion. Turning higher could confirm that buyers are ready to return and might push for a move back to the triangle top at $4,100. Similarly stochastic is dipping into the oversold region but has yet to turn higher to signal a return in bullish pressure.

More and more mainstream coverage on the recent slump in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is piling on the FUD that’s currently weighing on prices. Although the improvement in sentiment last week from revived expectations on institutional investment propped bitcoin higher, it seems that traders are hoping to get actual developments before sustaining any rallies.

Still, a lot of analysts are holding on to their bullish bets and this may be why bulls continue to defend nearby support levels. Some expect bitcoin to make a strong rebound before the end of 2019 while some believe that it could take place as early as Q1 2019.

According to a recently published A.T. Kearney report:

“By the end of 2019, Bitcoin will reclaim nearly two-thirds of the crypto-market capitalization as altcoins lose their luster because of growing risk aversion among cryptocurrency investors. More broadly financial regulators will soften their stance towards the sector.”

 

Author Rachel Lee December 5, 2018

 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – Reversal Candlestick At Make-Or-Break Level

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis - Reversal Candlestick At Make-Or-Break Level

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – Reversal Candlestick At Make-Or-Break Level

 

Bitcoin is down to the last line of defense for bulls but a reversal candlestick is forming.

BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle on its daily time frame and is currently testing support. This could be the last line of defense for buyers, as a break below support could signal that a longer-term selloff is underway.

 

However, a reversal candlestick or a doji appears to have formed right on support, and it would need the next candle to close above the high to confirm the possible bounce. If so, bitcoin could still climb up to the top of the triangle around $8,750-9,000.

 

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to persist than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is also widening to reflect stronger selling pressure.

 

Meanwhile, RSI is already hovering around oversold levels to reflect exhaustion among sellers. Similarly, stochastic has reached the oversold region to signal that the drop may be over. Turning higher could draw buyers back in and allow bitcoin to pull up from its drop.

 

 

There are still no positive developments being reported from the industry so far, which might keep bitcoin exposed to risk flows throughout the week. In the previous week, geopolitical risk has led to some demand for the safe-haven dollar even as the FOMC minutes signaled a slower pace of rate hikes later on.

Up ahead, the NFP report could be the main catalyst for the dollar, although market watchers will likely keep close tabs on US-China and US-North Korea talks. Further tensions could keep the lower-yielding dollar supported versus bitcoin.

Another factor that’s limiting bitcoin gains is the selling of Mt. Gox coins to pay off its creditors. This exchange held thousands of bitcoin, so it’s understandable that the liquidation of massive amounts has affected the market.

 

By Rachel Lee On May 28, 2018

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Price Analysis – Consolidation continues

Bitcoin Price Analysis - Consolidation continues

Bitcoin Price Analysis – Consolidation continues

 

 

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to seesaw, sliding 20% since May 6th and then recovering slightly over the past few days. The market cap now stands at US$144.86 billion, with US$1.64 billion traded in the past 24 hours.

On the network side, hash rate and difficulty continue to push record highs, with ongoing shipments of ASICs from multiple mining companies, including Bitmain and Halong. Although the original Bitcoin Whitepaperdescribed Proof of Work (PoW) as “one-CPU-one-vote,” the lead SIA coin developer David Vorick argues that “for any algorithm, there will always be a path that custom hardware engineers can take to beat out general purpose hardware.”

 

Furthermore, ASIC chips are typically manufactured by a small number of technology companies, meaning the bulk of the network is running on the same hardware. If that hardware is found to be faulty or exploitable, the entire network is at risk.

Concerns over PoW have not been limited to ASIC proliferation. A recent presentation by Alex de Vries of Price Waterhouse Cooper in the Netherlands, “Bitcoin's Growing Energy Problem,” concludes that Bitcoin currently consumes at least 2.55 GW of electricity, and is on pace to consume 7.67 GW in the near future. This leaves the networks energy consumption comparable to countries such as Ireland now (3.1 GW) and Austria in the future (8.2 GW).

Others see this as an energy revolution opportunity. Peter Van Valkenburg of CoinCenter, a non-profit research and advocacy center focused on the public policy issues facing cryptocurrency in Washington D.C., has argued that instead of destroying the planet, Bitcoin will push the energy market towards more sustainable alternatives, driving an energy revolution. Mining in Canada and Iceland uses hydro and geothermal power, while wind and solar are among the cheapest energy sources available. Bitcoin advocate Andreas Antonopoulos shares this view and has questioned the hidden resource needs required by other payment platforms.

However, the number of network nodes has fallen slightly over the past few months after reaching more than 12,500 in November. These statistics include mining and non-mining nodes. Although archival nodes are not incentivized directly with a block reward, they ensure network consensus. Based on global distribution, the United States and Germany have the highest percentage of nodes.

 

Transactions per day remain down sharply from the record high in December, above 400k, and are currently below 200k per day. Transactions have not only declined due to a lack of usage but also transaction batching, where one transaction is sent to many addresses at once instead of each transaction being sent individually.

Using an adjusted network value to transactions (NVT) ratio, BTC remains in the upper-third of historical NVT value. While NVT has not been this high since January 2015 it has begun to turn downward recently, which suggests increasing on-chain network utility based on the dollar amount being transacted.

Although NVT is difficult to compare between coins, which use different transactions types, the ratio can be used to assess the network’s relative utility over time. DOGE is the only coin that has had an NVT consistently lower than BTC (not shown). Additionally, inflexion points in NVT ratio can be correlated to extreme highs or lows in price.

Transaction fees, which increased dramatically throughout 2017, have also declined significantly. This fee reduction is also multifactorial. Although a decrease in transactions per day means fewer transactions needing to be cleared, SegWit, which currently accounts for 39% of transactions, has also been a significant contributing factor to the average fee decline.

The SegWit soft fork also enabled second layer network upgrades like the Lightning Network. Since going live on March 15, the Lightning Network (LN) has continued to gain traction as new channels come online and apps are created.

The software solution enables trusted, bidirectional, off-chain, hub and spoke payment channels and also promises the possibility of instant payments, microtransactions, and increased scalability. The channels work much like a tab at a restaurant, which remains open until the client settles the bill. This format allows for numerous transactions to occur without a network fee until the channel is closed.

At Consensus NYC, Square co-founder and CEO Jack Dorsey and Lightning Labs co-founder and CEO Elizabeth Stark discussed their vision for the future of payments. Dorsey, who had an early interest in hacker and cypherpunk movements, was also an investor in a Lightning Labs seed round.

Dorsey focused on the need to keep Bitcoin an open source project and the need for a native currency of the internet. He also hinted at a Square and Lightning partnership down the road saying, "We want to go back to that original idea of being able to purchase a coffee with it. And that's why we're working with Lightning Labs. Whatever it takes to get there, we're going to make sure it happens."

During his keynote speech at Consensus, eToro CEO Yoni Assia announced a new American crypto platform which will be trading Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, Dash, Bitcoin Cash, Stellar, Ethereum Classic, NEO, and EOS. Cryptocurrency trading on eToro increased by 4,500% in 2017, according to MarketWatch.

Bitcoin exchange traded volume this week has been led by the Tether (USDT) and USD markets for the fourth consecutive week, mostly on Binance, OKEX, and Bitfinex. In Asia, the JPY volume strongly leads the pack, thanks to friendly regulations and oversight, including declaring Bitcoin legal tender. The KRW premium is currently at 1.78%. CNY volume continues to fade.

Globally reported over the counter (OTC) volume from LocalBitcoins.com remains sharply down from December and January but has begun to increase again. Venezuela continues to post record highs in Bolivar volume, fueled by hyperinflation. Thus far, the hyperinflation rate has followed an almost identical trajectory as the Weimar Republic. The Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro Moros, won the national election earlier today.

 

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin continues to drift sideways on low volume, with an inability to establish a clean trend on high timeframes. The status of any emerging or nascent trend can be determined using Moving Averages, Chart Patterns, Ichimoku Cloud, and Pitchforks. Further background information on the technical analysis discussed below can be found here.

On the daily chart, open long/short interest on Bitfinex leans long, with shorts flat and longs rising (top panel, chart below). Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have gone flat, suggesting price consolidation. Price has fallen below the 200EMA with a bearish 50/200EMA cross.

Price structure shows a multi-month symmetrical triangle, or coil. In Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948), Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of these triangles lead to a continuation of the trend, while the rest mark reversals. In any case, this pattern will be a ‘trade the breakout’ situation because it will likely lead to weeks of trend follow through. Breakouts post consolidation typically occur after at least 66% of the triangle has completed (yellow highlight).

Turning to the Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart, there are four metrics; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross, and the Lagging Span. The best entry always occurs when most of the signals flip from bearish to bullish, or vice versa.

The Cloud metrics on the weekly time frame are; price above Cloud, bullish Cloud, bullish TK cross, and Lagging Span above price and Cloud. Together, these signals suggest the trend is bullish, and will remain bullish until a bearish TK cross or price dips below the Cloud.

Price itself is below the Kijun and, seemingly, in no-man’s land. Price and volume structures suggest the possibility of an unconventional inverted head and shoulders, a bullish reversal pattern. A long entry would not be warranted until price is above the Kijun, essentially also above the neckline of the head and shoulders chart pattern.

The Cloud metrics on the daily time frame are; price inside Cloud, bearish Cloud, bullish TK cross, and Lagging Span above price but below Cloud. A long entry based on traditional Cloud rules does not occur until the Cloud is breached by price, currently at ~US$11,586. However, a long reversal trade opportunity known as the Edge to Edge (E2E) trade can be taken advantage of with the current Cloud structure.

A long entry based on the E2E trade occurred several days ago, with a stop loss below the Kijun. Price dropped out of Cloud and below the Kijun, suggesting any active longs should be closed at that time. Although price has breached Cloud resistance for the second time, traders may avoid entering a second E2E trade this quickly as the previous E2E trade failed.

An E2E failing to reach its target is often an indication of additional consolidation being needed before price momentum returns. Price typically follows through with the direction of the E2E trade, but not until the Kumo twist, which in this case will occur after June 19th.

The Cloud metrics on the four hour time frame are; price below Cloud, bearish Cloud, bearish TK cross, and Lagging Span above price and below Cloud. A traditional long entry will not occur until price is above Cloud at ~US$8,942. An E2E long entry would trigger after a breach of Cloud at US$8,300. The previous four hour Kumo breakout led to a 27% price increase and both of the previous four hour E2E moves occurred in very few candles.

Penultimately, price has returned to the original upward trending Pitchfork beginning in 2015, with anchor points in January, May, and August of that year. Price broke North of this trend in October 2017 and again currently sits in the upper limits. A downside target of US~$5,700 is possible should price return to the mean (red line) of the prior trend.

astly, another Pitchfork on the daily chart starting in 2017, with anchor points in January, May, and July, shows price reaching a similar distance below the mean (red line) as was reached above the mean in December. Price has closed this pitchfork for several days suggesting bearish invalidation. If price returns to inside the Pitchfork, a return to the mean is possible.

 

Conclusion

ASICs continue to drive conversations about the network, both in terms of centralization and increasing power consumption. Network usage and fees remain relatively low with SegWit and Lightning metrics steadily increasing. Exchanges and go-to-market apps continue to be developed.

Technicals suggest ongoing consolidation with several failed bullish reversal attempts, based on Ichimoku Clouds and a longstanding Pitchfork. The structure of price consolidation suggests bullish continuation, which may occur as early as May 31st. If the consolidation results in further downside a bearish target of ~US$5,700 is likely, based on a multi-year Pitchfork.

 

 

Author Josh Olszewicz, 21 May 2018

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 5th April 2018 – Next Potential Support Zones

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 5th April 2018 – Next Potential Support Zones

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price is trending lower still after recently pulling back to a descending trend line on its 1-hour time frame.

  • Price is eyeing the next downside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

  • Technical indicators are giving mixed signals, but it looks like bears could still win out.

Bitcoin price has resumed its slide after a quick pullback, possibly attempting to make new lows from here.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. The moving averages are also near the descending trend line, adding extra layers of resistance in the event of another pullback.

Stochastic is pointing up to indicate the presence of bullish pressure, though, so bitcoin price might still be able to bounce from here. Upon reaching overbought levels, the oscillator could turn back south to draw sellers back in.

The next potential support is at the 38.2% extension of $6495 near the swing low. The 50% extension is at $6185.90 and the 61.8% extension is at $5876.60. The full extension is located at $4875.50.

If bitcoin price is able to sustain its bounce at current levels, a double bottom pattern could form and this is often considered a classic reversal signal. That way, the neckline would be at $7500 and an upside break could lead to a rally of the same height as the formation.

Market Factors

Analysts point to the global uncertainty spurred by the trade tensions between China and the U.S. as one of the major culprits dragging bitcoin price lower. After all, traders are feeling less hungry for risk, putting their funds in safe-haven assets like the dollar and bonds instead.

Besides, traders might have also taken the recent pullback as an opportunity to liquidate their positions at better prices, fearing that rallies might not last very long in this market environment.
 

Author SARAH JENN | APRIL 5, 2018 | 4:48 AM
 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Price Analysis – The bottom is likely in

Bitcoin Price Analysis – The bottom is likely in

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen ~50% over the past week following a ~60% drop throughout early January and February. The leading cryptocurrency now has a market cap of ~US$150 billion, with over US$3.5 billion traded over the past 24 hours.

The mining sector is heating up rapidly all over the world, bringing additional decentralization to an industry that has been concentrated in China for many years. While being compared to a gold rush, there is an increasing focus on hardware and energy demands.

Nvidia stock continues to soar, in part due to GPU mining demand. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admitted crypto was a “real part” of their business in Q4 2017 and that, “crypto is a real thing, it’s not going to go away.” Later this month the Toronto stock exchange will list the Vancouver-based Hut 8 Mining Corp, a company backed by Georgian mining company Bitfury – one of the main competitors of China-based Bitmain.

In order to maximize returns, miners are generally concentrated where electricity is cheap. These geographic locations typically have renewable or alternative energy sources, as is the case in Washington State and Iceland.

Washington State has seen a large uptick in mining activity recently due to relatively cheap hydroelectric power and a large quantity undeveloped land. Mining is slated to become a multimillion-dollar business in Chelan County, where the local power provider, Chelan Public Utility District (PUD), is dealing with a surge of requests to build large-scale mining facilities. The county of 72,400 residents already has 16 cryptocurrency mining operations up and running.

Iceland may be using more power to mine BTC than they use to power homes by the end of 2018, according to reporting from the BBC. Johann Snorri Sigurbergsson, a spokesman for Icelandic energy firm HS Orka, said that there is so much demand for BTC mining data centers in Iceland that the country wouldn't have enough electricity to supply them all were they to be built.

Japanese e-commerce company DMM also announced plans for a 1,000 unit mining farm in the Ishikawa Prefecture, taking advantage of low ambient temperatures and cheap electricity costs, while Italian utility company Enel Italy has decided against selling power for the purposes of cryptocurrency mining as it is an “unsustainable practice that does not fit with the business model.”

While mining operations across the globe expand, crypto has entered the zeitgeist of several central bankers and economists. The previous U.S. chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, held a hawkish stance on BTC, calling it a “highly speculative asset” that “doesn't constitute legal tender.” The Executive Director of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Austria’s central bank, agreed. Kurt Pribil said that “bitcoin price is pure speculation.” French and German finance ministers have also raised concerns over education and risk management, and plan to propose restrictions on BTC at the Argentinian G20 meeting in March.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde believes international crypto regulation will be necessary and “inevitable,” in regards to activities involving dark markets rather than crypto itself. President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, has a warmer approach, suggesting “banks will show positive interest” and that the ECB cannot and will not regulate BTC.

Arizona state legislators have taken a warmer stance as well. A bill recently passed into legislation that allows taxes to be paid using cryptocurrencies. Several Libertarian-leaning U.S politicians have already accepted campaign donations in BTC, including; Colorado Democrat Jared Polis in 2014, Kentucky Republican Rand Paul in 2016, and most recently, Missouri Republican Austin Petersen.

In the meantime, the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol) and other police agencies remain focused on money laundering and other illicit activities using cryptocurrencies. The Executive Director of Europol, Rob Wainwright, estimates that about 3-4% of the £100bn in illicit proceeds in Europe are laundered through cryptocurrencies.

In the U.S., a resident of Ohio was recently arrested for allegedly running a fake ID ring where US$4.7 million of BTC was confiscated. In Russia, scientists were recently arrested for using a nuclear supercomputer to mine BTC. Computers within nuclear facilities are rarely connected to the internet as a preventative measure against hacking. However, the scientists apparently connected the computer and were promptly arrested.

In less nefarious bitcoin adoption this week, real estate sales for BTC transactions also continue to increase. A Florida company recently completed its third bitcoin-only transaction, selling a Miami townhouse for 41.35 BTC, or US$338,878. A previous bitcoin-only Miami transaction included a penthouse for 33 BTC, or US$547,000 at the time. Fifty luxury apartments were recently sold for BTC in Dubai as well, with one buyer taking 10 units.

However, banks outside the U.S. have begun to ban BTC purchases with credit cards, including the Bank of Ireland as well as several banks in the United Kingdom. Pantera Capital CEO, Dan Moorehead, continues to remain extremely bullish saying, “there’s such an institutional appetite to get exposure to this. It’s a half a trillion dollar asset class that nobody owns. That’s a pretty wild circumstance.” Institutional traders continue to gain exposure to crypto through CME’s BTC cash-settled futures.

Exchange traded volume this week has been led by U.S. Dollar Tether (USDT), U.S. Dollar (USD), and Japanese Yen (JPY) trading pairs.

Over the counter volume globally is nearing record highs set in December.

Technical Analysis

The current BTC trend is roughly neutral, based on high timeframe metrics. Indicators such as the Ichimoku Cloud, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Pitchfork, and basic chart patterns help determine entry and exit points, as well as the state of the trend.

The Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart remains bullish, but its metrics do not provide any long entry or exit signals. Price bounced off the 50 day EMA, and 50 on the RSI, for the first time in several months. This indicates a sustained bull trend with a complete momentum reset. Bullish continuation is likely if the 50 level on the RSI continues as support. The previous weekly candle formed a dragonfly Doji, a bullish reversal candle, which will be confirmed as a reversal following a consecutive green candle this week.

The Ichimoku Cloud metrics on the daily chart are all bearish. Although this would typically trigger a short entry, the distance of price from the Kijun suggests that the asset remains heavily oversold. An optimal short entry would occur when price returns to, but does not breach, the Kijun. This would indicate bearish continuation.

February 6th also marked the highest daily trading volume since China banned trading in early 2017. Volume spikes such as this are highly suggestive of an interim trend reversal, as was the case on September 15th.

The next long entry signal indicated by the Ichimoku Cloud on this time frame, will not trigger until all its metrics flip bullish again. This may not occur for several weeks. The Kumo twist on March 6th is the zone with the highest likelihood of price breaching the Cloud. If price is below the Cloud at that time, it will treat this zone as a magnet for upward momentum. Price is also currently near but below the 200EMA, a litmus test for trend status.

 

A Pitchfork on the daily chart with anchor points in February, May, and July shows price reaching the 1.618 level on the recent drop. The 1.618 level is borrowed from Fibonacci extensions and was also roughly seen as resistance at US$15,700 and US$17,000.

Buying in the current zone comes with the risk of a bearish invalidation of the Pitchfork. A significant break below the lowest diagonal support would invalidate the Pitchfork entirely. The upside potential is a return to the median line, followed by a test of the upper limit.

A bullish reversal pattern, the inverted head and shoulders, with a 1.618 fib extension and measured moves of US$11,500 and US$13,105, continues to form. The horizontal levels of this pattern strongly correlate with support and resistance levels from previous order blocks.

Lastly, market cycles are loosely correlated with the OKEX (previously OKcoin) quarterly futures expiration dates. January and July have preceded the beginning of relative bearish reversal periods (red), whereas April and October have preceded the beginning of relative bullish reversal periods (green). This has occurred irrespective of the macro trend.

Conclusion

The ever-expanding mining data centers across the globe continue to add pressure to regional power supplies. Although mining profitability will inevitably be affected by any rise in the cost of power, the additional investment in the crypto industry lends sustainability to the industry as a whole.

Following the generally dovish Senate hearing on cryptocurrency last week, regulators around the world continue to reveal their positions. While most regulators have adopted a wait and see approach, law enforcement continues to report on illicit activities, in spite of the relatively minor use of cryptocurrency.

Technicals are neutral based on the trend metrics with a complete momentum reset. Exchange-traded and OTC volume continue to sustain levels seen during the ATH period in December. Low timeframes show a bullish reversal pattern which should conclude within the next 24 hours, eventually bringing BTC back above US$10,000 once the pattern completes.

 

Author osh Olszewicz, 13 Feb 2018

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

 

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member