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Bitcoin will reach 8500 by end of year says Trefis predicts ETF approval will cause bull run

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Bitcoin will reach $8500 by end of year, says Trefis; predicts ETF approval will cause bull run

Bitcoin will reach $8500 by end of year, says Trefis; predicts ETF approval will cause bull run

Trefis Team, a firm offering software that predicts market movements, recently offered their opinion on the price of Bitcoin [BTC]. While the cryptocurrency market has been seeing bullish news lately, the price continues to exhibit sluggish movement.

Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency, is currently trading at the $6500 mark after a series of sharp drops last week. Goldman Sachs stated that they would delay the plans of its cryptocurrency trading desk, leading to a widespread selloff due to FUD.

However, Trefis claims to have predicted the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2018, putting it around $8500 around the timeframe. Their predictions are based on the overall transaction volume for Bitcoin and the total number of users on the blockchain. Moreover, their predictions, when backtested, are reportedly 94% accurate as stated on their website.

They utilize the principles of supply and demand to fundamentally determine the price of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency, with its capped supply and deflationary system of bringing new coins into existence, has a supply system that would help the case of its price rising. The two variables that Trefis has considered to calculate the demand is the number of active users and the amount they transact.

According to these calculations, they expect the price of Bitcoin to undergo a 30% increase over the year, quoting reasons such as the general sentiment dictated by the news. This, according to them, was the reason for the price to go up to $20,000 late last year. They also stated that the price has moved in tandem with news, with dips being observed when exchanges were hacked and when the United States Securities and Exchanges Commission [SEC] denied applications for an exchange-traded fund [ETF].

According to Trefis, the creation and general lobbying of the Blockchain Association will also create a more positive view for regulators. They stated that the approval of the ETF by the SEC is one of the biggest catalysts for the growth of Bitcoin. It represents a “huge potential upside” to the price of Bitcoin.

Iarius Germund, a market analyst, stated:

“While the market still responds sluggishly to a lot of the news coming out right now, the base is gradually being built. At the same time last year, the cryptocurrency market did not have many of the things it required for mainstream adoption as an asset class. We have made considerable progress on that end, but the price is only likely to move when actual changes occur in the market with respect to adoption.”

 

Anirudh VK

Published 29 mins ago on September 15, 2018

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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Bitcoin Bulls Need to Make a Move or Pay a Heavy Price

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Bitcoin – Bulls Need to Make a Move or Pay a Heavy Price

Bitcoin – Bulls Need to Make a Move or Pay a Heavy Price

Bitcoin holds on to positive territory in the early hours, though will need to break back through to $7,400 levels to avoid a bearish move.

Bitcoin gained 1.23% on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s 0.47% decline, to end the day at $7,357.2.

Recovering from an early morning intraday low $7,246.2. Steering clear of the day’s first major support level at $7,187.47, Bitcoin rallied through late morning and early afternoon to an intraday high $7,415.4.

The rally through to the day high saw Bitcoin break through the day’s first major resistance level at $7,356.47 and back through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 to hit $7,400 levels for the 2nd time in 3-days, prior to which was back in the 1st week of August.

In spite of the breakout from the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376, Bitcoin failed to hold on to $7,400 levels with a late in the day broad based market sell-off seeing Bitcoin’s gains for the day reduced, with Bitcoin pulling back through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level by the day’s end.

With selling pressure evident at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level, Bitcoin’s failure to hold above $7,376 by the day’s end reaffirmed the extended bearish trend formed at early May’s swing hi $9,999, with a break out from $7,376 needed to support the formation of a bearish trend reversal.

The gains came with the news wires on the friendlier side at the start of the week, with regulator chatter on hold, allowing the Bitcoin bulls to talk up the prospects of a return to bullish form and a run at $20,000 levels by the year-end.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up just 0.07% to $7,363.9, with moves through the early morning seeing Bitcoin recover from a start of a day morning low $7,357.2 to a morning high $7,398.7 before easing back, the early moves leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested, while resistance at $7,400 proved to be too great in the early hours.

For the day ahead, moving back through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 would support another run at $7,400 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level at $7,433 into play, with market sentiment to dictate whether Bitcoin can take a run at $7,500 levels, investors continuing to be on the more cautious side in spite of Bitcoin’s recent weekly gains and hold on to $7,300 levels.

Failure to move back through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 could see Bitcoin hit reverse, with any fall through 7,340 bringing sub-$7,300 levels and the day’s first major support level at $7,263.8 into play before any recovery.

We would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of sub-$7,300 levels should the news wires remain crypto friendly, with Bitcoin’s relatively minor gains through the early part of the week likely to limit profit taking in the middle part of the week, though investors will wary of what’s to come on the regulatory front, which continues to pin Bitcoin back from $8,000 levels and beyond.

 

Bob Mason

19 minutes ago

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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Bitcoin BTC Price Watch – Don’t Miss This Bullish Pullback

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch – Don’t Miss This Bullish Pullback

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price is trending higher inside an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart and is testing the top.

  • A pullback to support might be due from here, so as to gather more bullish energy on the climb.

  • The uptrend is likely to resume since the 100 SMA is completing a crossover above the 200 SMA.

Bitcoin price hit resistance at the top of the channel but might be ready to resume the climb on a test of support.

 

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is crossing above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse or that support is more likely to hold than to break.

However, RSI is pointing down to indicate that sellers are trying to regain control from here while buyers take a break. Similarly stochastic is moving south so bitcoin price might follow suit while bearish pressure is in play.

Price could bounce upon hitting support at the Fib levels or the channel bottom, which lines up with the 61.8% level in particular. This also coincides with a former resistance around $7,000, which might also hold as an area of interest.

A larger pullback could last until the swing low just above the moving averages, which might be the line in the sand for any bullish correction.

BTCUSD Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price does seem to remain support, especially after landing back above the $7,000 major psychological mark that many are watching. Optimism for approval by the SEC in bitcoin ETF applications appears to be keeping bulls present for fear of missing out on a big rally.

Apart from that, many analysts are renewing their bullish calls on this particular cryptocurrency, with Tom Lee even citing that the launch of ethereum futures might wind up positive for bitcoin.

 

Sarah Jenn – NewsBTC – 1 hour ago

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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After Bitcoin Price Breakout Pending ETF Decision May Cap Gains

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After Bitcoin Price Breakout, Pending ETF Decision May Cap Gains

After Bitcoin Price Breakout, Pending ETF Decision May Cap Gains

Bitcoin's (BTC) jump to a 15-day high is encouraging, but caution ahead of the US Securities Exchange Commission's (SEC) imminent decision on a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could limit further price gains.

The leading cryptocurrency rose to $6,899 on Bitfinex earlier today – the highest level since Aug. 7 – and is accompanied by a 10 percent drop in the BTC/USD shorts, adding credence to our assessment that BTC has been mimicking the price action observed in the run-up to a major rally that occurred on April 12.

More importantly, BTC's convincing move above $6,600 marks an upside break of the narrowing price range and signals continuation of the rally from the Aug. 14 low of $5,859.

So, it seems safe to say the doors have been opened for the psychological hurdle of $7,000. However, that may be an uphill task in the short term, as investors are likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the SEC's ruling on whether to allow the ETF – due in the next 36 hours.

Further, BTC picked up a bid exactly at 1:00 UTC – the moment when Bitmex, the world's largest exchange for synthetic shorts, shut down for maintenance, forcing many to question the legitimacy of the price rally. As a result, investors may remain on the fence until a more credible evidence of the bullish breakout emerges.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,670 on Bitfinex – up 3.6 percent on a 24-hour basis. While prices could skyrocket if the SEC approves ProShares bitcoin ETF, the bitcoin market will likely crater if the SEC rejects the ETF or delays the decision.

4-hour chart

The upside break of the diamond pattern seen in the chart above confirms a bearish-to-bullish trend change, that is, the sell-off from the July high of $8,507 has ended and the bulls have regained control.

The relative strength index (RSI) is holding above 50.00 in favor of the bulls. Meanwhile, the 50-candle moving average (MA) is beginning to rise in a bull-friendly manner and could soon cut the 100-candle MA from below (bull cross).

Daily chart

BTC's rise to $6,899 validates the bullish crossover between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages (MAs) and the upward sloping RSI.

Although it appears the charts are aligned in favor of the bulls, BTC has already retraced close to 50 percent of the gains seen today, possibly validating the skepticism around today's rally.

What's more, the retreat to $6,670 also marks a failure to hold on to gains above the key resistance at $6,870 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from $8,507 to $5,859).

 

View

  • BTC's bullish breakout has proved to be lacking in staying power. That said, acceptance above $6,870 (Fibonacci hurdle) could boost the odds of a rally to $7,000.

  • On the downside, a move below $6,230 (Aug. 20 low) would shift risk in favor of a drop below $6,000 (February low).

The SEC's decision on the bitcoin ETF could send prices either way, but until then the market will likely trade on a cautious note.

 

Omkar Godbole

Updated Aug 22, 2018 at 11:28 UTC

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis 23 April – Bulls Back in Action

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Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis 23 April – Bulls Back in Action

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price has gained some traction since breaking past its inverse head and shoulders neckline.

  • Price is now trading inside an ascending channel and testing the resistance.

  • A return in bearish pressure could take it back down to support around the Fib levels.

Bitcoin price is trending higher but might be due for a pullback to its channel support.

 

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This indicates that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.

Applying the Fib tool to the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the bottom of the channel at $8338.30. The 38.2% retracement level is close to the mid-channel area of interest at $8600.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. The gap between the two is also widening to reflect stronger bullish momentum.

Stochastic looks ready to turn up from the overbought zone to signal a return in buying pressure. In that case, bitcoin could even attempt to break past the channel resistance or swing high at $9000 to establish a steeper climb.

 

Market Factors

Exchanges are reporting that buy orders are nearing 92% of activity, drawing even more investors in so as to not get left behind in the rally. Some predict that bitcoin could surge past the $20,000 highs within the quarter.

Risk appetite has also been mostly supported in the markets, which means that traders are willing to place bets outside of traditional assets like stocks and commodities. Sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry itself has also improved significantly over the past couple of weeks, spurred by news about big hedge funds and acquisitions in the space.

 

Author SARAH JENN | APRIL 23, 2018 | 5:37 AM

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

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What is the price of bitcoin today – Why is BTC rising

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What is the price of bitcoin today - Why is BTC rising

What is the price of bitcoin today? Why is BTC rising?

BITCOIN prices are back on the rise today, as the cryptocurrency posts strong results mid week. What is the price of bitcoin today? Why is BTC rising?

Midweek charts show bitcoin prices are back on the rise.

The cryptocurrency has been steadily rising overnight, increasing by more than 2.44 percent in the last hour.

Bitcoin prices were trading at $8,239.66 as of 4.30pm today.

The rest of the cryptocurrency market has also seen a bumper rise in prices.

Ethereum stays ahead of resistance at $544 and Ripple increased 6.83 percent to trade at $0.728 percent.

Bitcoin spin-off, Bitcoin Cash, rose by 13.11 percent to hover just below £1,000 a coin at $940.78.

Litecoin also rose 4.14 percent to trade at $142.

Why is bitcoin rising?

Bitcoin maintains its bullish trend throughout the week as the cryptocurrency recovers from April 17’s tax sell-off.

Investors and analysts feared the US tax deadline on Tuesday would fuel a flurry of crypto-selling, driving prices down.

After a brief wobble, BTC recovered and has been rising steadily ever since.

Tom Lee, founder of hedge fund, Fundstrat, suggested pressure to sell off coins in response to the tax deadline would ease off in the weeks following.

And it appears that his prediction is correct, as prices float higher across the week.

US bitcoin investors owed around $25 billion in capital gains taxes for 2017 following a surge in its price in December, according to Mr Lee.

He told CNBC: “There is quite a lot of discussion in a lot of the crypto groups about the magnitude of tax selling.

“I think we ended up just taking a lot of these thoughts, putting it into a spreadsheet and we came up with an estimate that $25billion would be the tax bill owed to the IRS for realised gains for US households, which is a windfall for the IRS.

“The most that they ever received in capital gains in any single year was 144billion.”

It seems that investors are happy to dip back into the market, as the London Block Exchange (LBX) has discovered.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, LBX CEO, Benjamin Dives, said there has been a notable increase in the amount of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple, handled by his firm.

He said: “The common assumption is that institutional investors shy away from new asset classes such as cryptocurrency.

"However, that’s not what we are seeing here at LBX; we've seen a huge uplift in institutional interest recently. Since Q1 2018, we're now handling many millions in trades each month.

“From hedge funds to pension funds, institutional investors are taking cryptocurrency seriously.

"At LBX, institutional investors have had access to our over-the-counter desk for some time, which allows investors to trade cryptocurrencies under preferential conditions for high volume orders."

 

 

 

Author OWEN GOUG UPDATED: 18:14, Thu, Apr 19, 2018

 

Posted by David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

 

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

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Looking Ahead To $20,000 Bitcoin

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Looking Ahead To $20,000 Bitcoin

Looking Ahead To $20,000 Bitcoin

In last week’s Investor Alert, our investment team shared with you a report from Morgan Stanley that says Bitcoin’s price decline since December mimics the Nasdaq tech bubble in the late 1990s. This isn’t earth-shattering news in and of itself. The main difference is that the bitcoin rout happened at 15 times the rate as the tech bubble.

Morgan Stanley has some good news for Bitcoin bulls, however: The 70 percent decline is “nothing out of the ordinary,” and what’s more, such corrections “have historically preceded rallies.” Just as the Nasdaq gained back much of what it lost in the subsequent years—before the financial crisis pared losses even further—bitcoin could similarly be ready to stage a strong recovery.

One research firm, in fact, believes Bitcoin and other digital coins, or “alt-coins,” have likely found a bottom. New York-based Fundstrat, headed by strategist Thomas Lee, issued a statement to investors last week saying that, though a cryptocurrency bull market isn’t necessarily underway, the worst of the pain could be “largely over.”

Fundstrat research shows that periods of cryptocurrency consolidation, or “purgation,” generally last 70 to 231 days. Bitcoin hit its all-time high in mid-December, almost 70 days ago as of March 26. Taking into consideration Fundstrat’s estimates, then, it’s possible the bear market could conclude sometime between now and early August.
 

In the meantime, Lee writes, alt-coin investors should stick with larger-cap cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple.

 

Take the Long-Term View

It’s helpful to compare Bitcoin with Nasdaq, as Morgan Stanley did, but what about comparing the current cycle with one from the past?

In June 2011, Bitcoin peaked at nearly $30 and found a bottom of $2.02 five months later, in November. It would be an additional 15 months before it returned to its former high. This might seem like a long time to some, but investors who managed to get in at the bottom would have seen their position grow more than 1,300%.

So can Bitcoin do the same today? Obviously no one can say for sure, but what I can say with certainty is that Bitcoin, like all digital coins, is highly volatile. Plus, there’s not quite 10 years’ worth of data, meaning it’s been difficult to identify trends.

Cryptocurrencies are also currently facing tougher oversight from several world governments and central banks, not to mention Facebook and Twitter’s bans on ads promoting them—obstacles they didn’t have to contend with back in 2011 and 2012.

But I remain bullish. Cryptocurrencies are still in their very early stages. To return to the comparison with tech stocks, we don’t know at this point which digital coins will be tomorrow’s equivalent of Amazon, Google, Apple and Facebook. A long-term view is key.

Finally, I still believe in the power of Metcalfe’s law, which says that as more and more people adopt a new technology—cell phones, for instance, or Facebook—its value goes up geometrically. A poll conducted in February shows that just under 8% of American adults report ever owning or purchasing any cryptocurrencies. Market penetration, then, hasn’t been as pervasive as some might expect, but as people increasingly become more confident in dipping their toes in the space, demand could rise and, with it, prices.

 

Author Frank Holmes

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David ogden Cryptocurrency entrepreneur

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

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Bitcoin BTC Daily Price Forecast November 14

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Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Price Forecast – November 14

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Price Forecast – November 14

  • BTC/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging
  • Resistance Levels: $6,800, $6,900, $7,000
  • Support levels: $6,300, $6,100, $5,900

Yesterday, November 13, the price of Bitcoin was in a sideways trend. The crypto’s price had been in a sideways trend before price broke that level to the low of $6,300 on November 11. On November 13, the crypto’s price has resumed its sideways trend. Price of Bitcoin is now fluctuating above the $6,400 price level.

The 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are horizontally flat indicating the sideways trend. The small body’s candlesticks are indecisive candlesticks describing the indecision of buyers and sellers at the $6,400 price level. There will be no trade recommendation as the price of Bitcoin is still in a sideways trend. Meanwhile, the crypto’s price is above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA indicating that price is likely to rise. The MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates a buy signal.

On the 1-hour chart, the price of Bitcoin is in a sideways trend. The price bars are fluctuating above the exponential moving averages. The MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates a buy signal.

 

By Azeez M – November 14, 2018

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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Tom Lee Cuts 10000 Off EOY Bitcoin Price Forecast

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Tom Lee Cuts $10,000 Off EOY Bitcoin Price Forecast

Tom Lee Cuts $10,000 Off EOY Bitcoin Price Forecast

Per an article from CNBC, Tom Lee, Bitcoin’s inside man at Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently lowered his Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction by $10,000, claiming that this industry’s foremost asset will only hit $15,000 by year’s end, not $25,000 as he has stated incessantly on previous occasions.

Like his previous bitcoin price calls, the Fundstrat executive drew attention to the break-even cost of mining one BTC, which he believes correlates directly with the price of the digital asset. Lee noted that the break-even cost with Bitmain’s S9 machine has fallen to $7,000 from $8,000, adding that it would be fair for BTC to surpass 2.2 times that amount.

He also drew attention to the Bitcoin Cash contention, which is an ongoing epic, as seen by the endless tussle between Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision. Like other analysts, Lee explained that recent bearish price action can be attributed to the hard fork, alluding to the fact that this so-called “civil war” is instilling feelings of distrust in crypto investors at large.

However, while Lee’s decision to cut $10,000 off his forecast may accentuate fleeting hints of bearish sentiment, the bottom line is that the Fundstrat’s in-house research savant isn’t ready to give up on BTC just yet, even though his dignity took a strong blow to the chin, so to speak.

Lee added:

While bitcoin broke below that psychologically important $6,000, this has lead to a renewed wave of pessimism… But we believe the negative swing in sentiment is much worse than the fundamental implications.

Other Insiders Remain Bullish On Crypto

Interestingly, Lee isn’t the only industry insider to be bullish on the short to mid-term prospects of this industry.

In early-October, Spencer Bogart, a partner at Blockchain Capital, explained that positive institutional news, like the arrival of TD Ameritrade, Yale, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), will likely be the primary contributor to crypto’s impending bonfire (bull run), as it were.

Lee backed this claim, drawing attention to the looming launch of Bakkt and FDAS as “[a] part of a broader creation of infrastructure necessary for institutional involvement.”

In contrast, Nikolay Storonsky, CEO of Revolut, has recently claimed that retail investors will drive 2019’s crypto bull run, going against the popular sentiment that the launch of the institutional-focused Bakkt and Fidelity Digital Asset Services (FDAS) will propel crypto to Main Street after Wall Street fills their bags.

Others have begged to differ, but as always, investors, whether from the Bitcoin maximalist or altcoin advocate camp, have begun to exert their opinion that a cryptocurrency bull run is in the cards. However, at the time of writing, the crypto market has failed to recover, with BTC and its altcoin brethren posting losses of 2-3%.

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

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Buying Bitcoins Recent Dip Could Be Profitable Chart Watcher Points Out

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Buying Bitcoins Recent Dip Could Be Profitable, Chart Watcher Points Out

Buying Bitcoins Recent Dip Could Be Profitable, Chart Watcher Points Out

Earlier this week, bitcoin saw its price drop nearly 12% in a single day, taking it below the $6,000 mark and breaking a longstanding support just under said mark. The day after, bitcoin hit a new yearly low under $5,500. The dip may be a profitable opportunity, according to one chart watcher.

As first reported by MarketWatch, Twitter user OddStats revealed that, throughout bitcoin’s history, large two-day sell-offs are usually followed by short rallies that can be profitable.

Using the Twitter users’ analysis it’s possible to see that in some cases it could’ve been extremely profitable to buy the dip, as long as it dropped over 10% in two days. The last time it occurred, at the end of March, BTC dropped roughly 14%, to about $6,840.

Those who bought the dip then would’ve seen their coins go up a whopping 46% in the next few weeks, as the flagship cryptocurrency then surged to nearly $10,000. As MarketWatch points out, in early February, the strategy would’ve been profitable as well.

At the time, BTC fell over 24.5% in said time period, but quickly recovered as in the next two weeks the cryptocurrency jumped roughly 72%. While in hindsight the strategy looks profitable, some of the microblogging website’s users have pointed out it would be hard to time the market, and that the data may not be representative.

Nevertheless, bitcoiners have seemingly been buying the recent dip. Data from the popular cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex shows the number of long contracts surged from about 23,700 to roughly 26,700 in a few days.

As MarketWatch points out, the outstanding long interest is currently at its highest level since October 11. The two-day sell-off strategy, however, may have its flaws.

Late last year, when bitcoin hit its all-time high close to $19,000, the criteria were met on December 19-20. Buying the cryptocurrency then would’ve set traders down a further 20%, as the cryptocurrency kept on dipping.

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member