The bitcoin
and cryptocurrency
bubble is just getting started

 I attended one of the most important events in the blockchain world

The consensus is an annual blockchain technology summit in New York where industry leaders discuss all things bitcoin and blockchain, and where new blockchain companies come to pitch their ideas. Regular readers are familiar with bitcoin and blockchain. Bitcoin is digital money that is created and held electronically. At the core of Bitcoin technology is a super database called the “blockchain.” The blockchain contains every transaction in the history of bitcoin and is accessible to anyone. A lot of people think that blockchain will eventually be used to process everything from stock trades to voting.

I first recommended buying bitcoin back in March. Over the next two and a half months, the price of bitcoin soared 72 percent. Earlier this week, I reiterated my recommendation to buy by saying: “stop procrastinating!” Guess what? Bitcoin is up another 20 percent since then. But the rollercoaster ride isn’t done yet. One of my biggest takeaways from Consensus was that the boom in bitcoin and blockchain is just getting started. Everywhere I looked, conference attendees were on mobile phones and laptops trading cryptocurrencies throughout the course of the conference. Here are just a few of the things I learned at the summit:

The bitcoin boom is fuelling more cryptocurrency rallies

The market capitalisations of the two largest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, and ether, have increased by nearly US$40 billion in the past three months. The total cryptocurrency market cap is up by $65 billion (a nearly 300 percent gain) to US$85 billion. As a result, holders of these currencies are sitting on huge wealth and they are now looking to “diversify” into other cryptocurrencies. This means that instead of being 100 percent in bitcoin and/or ether, investors are looking to take 5 or 10 percent of their cryptocurrency portfolio and buy other cryptocurrencies. This is fuelling a boom in second-tier cryptocurrencies.

Rampant speculation

As I listened in on pitches from new blockchain businesses, the most common single question was this: “when is the ICO?” (ICO means “initial coin offering”, the cryptocurrency equivalent of an IPO, or initial public offering, for a stock). Market participants are expecting immediate multiples of return on capital, regardless of the business case (if any). ICOs are viewed as near-guarantees of immediate big gains. I see a lot of parallels here with the tech bubble of the late 1990s. And there will be some spectacular blowups ahead.

But let’s be clear: at the peak of the dot-com bubble, the market cap of the NASDAQ index was near US$6 trillion. The entire cryptocurrency market cap right now is currently less than 1.5 percent of that. The point is, for all the noise in the media, the level of general public participation in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains extremely low. Just think about your own group of friends and associates. How many of them even own bitcoin? So this bubble is just getting started.

Regulators at the gate

The legal and regulatory system is far behind what’s actually happening in the cryptocurrency space. How do you treat cryptocurrencies? Are they securities? Currencies? Assets? Something in between? Remember, all cryptocurrencies offer different characteristics. Some offer the equivalent of a coupon or a distribution of profits, for example. But at some stage regulators (most likely the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)) will step into this market. Especially as the financial stakes increase. There are scam-like cryptocurrencies taking advantage of the huge boom. When investors start crying foul, you can expect the SEC to start weighing in. When they do, you can expect increased volatility and big drops in the scummier cryptocurrencies out there. But SEC participation will only make this industry more mainstream and bring in more money.

In the meantime…

This was just a quick wrap-up of what’s going on in cryptocurrencies. I’ll be bringing you more insights on this space in the future. But for now, everyone should be accumulating a little bitcoin. A few hundred dollars, a couple thousand… whatever you can afford to allocate in the super-speculative portion of your portfolio. Now, bitcoin will not keep increasing in value at its current rate of growth forever. At some stage, the market price will correct.

But everyone needs to familiarize themselves with the process of buying, trading and storing cryptocurrencies. Blockchain and Bitcoin are here to stay. This technology will only grow in scale and opportunity. And being on the outside (and not understanding it) will limit your ability to profit from it. Remember, this rollercoaster ride is just getting started. So there’s no reason not to be buying now.

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Ontario Canada’s Kik Interactive will dive into the cryptocurrency market with Kin, an Ethereum-based ERC20 token.

  

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

   Dan Bilzerian’s penchant for automatic weapons,

high-stakes poker, fast women, and faster cars have made him an unfiltered internet phenomenon. Now you can add go ahead and bitcoin BTCUSD, +3.10%  to his list. Bilzerian told his 22.3 million Instagram followers on Wednesday afternoon that he “just bought a sh*tload of Bitcoin” and that “it’s so crazy watching that sh*t f**king go up it’s like… betting a bunch of money on the Super Bowl.” Do you trust this guy’s judgment?

Bilzerian, of course, knows all about betting a bunch of money. He once claimed he won $50 million over the course of a year playing poker. He also said that he flipped a coin for $2.3 million and lost. So, yes, Bitcoin sounds about right, considering the cryptocurrency’s volatility. On Thursday, Bitcoin rallied to yet another record high and has now jumped almost 50% in the last week alone. Since last year, Bitcoin has surged more than 400%. As you can see, however, Bilzerian’s endorsement didn’t exactly thrill many of the investors frequenting Reddit’s Bitcoin group:

“If that’s not a sign of a bubble IDK what is lol.”  “NORMIES INCOMING!”  “F**k I just sold some because of this, not even joking.” Does Bilzerian’s post, indeed, mark a potential top for bitcoin, like a cab driver tipping you off about the next hot semiconductor stock?  Who knows, but he has backed a winning long shot before.

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin’s appeal is at an all-time high

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

A future with autonomous vehicles is fast approaching 

and with it, the idea that blockchain could connect automobiles and other Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices is getting its fair share of attention. Even though smart houses (where doors, thermostats and appliances are connected to the internet for added functionality) may have seemed more trendy a year ago, blockchain startups are becoming drawn to the potential of connected cars. "Timing is everything," said John Gerryts, co-founder and CEO at Oaken. "Now is the perfect time to begin building this stuff out."

He went on to explain:

"Everyone is in turn with it and on the same page with autonomous vehicles being within reach, depending on who you talk to, in the next 5–10 years."

The "stuff" Gerryts is talking about includes developing a mechanism that would allow autonomous vehicles to be truly autonomous. This means that a car could refuel, recharge and park on its own – and pay for those services as well.

Opportunity at the edge

Most entrepreneurs in the self-driving car space, said Gerryts, are focused on mobility. However, Oaken is focused on the layers and support systems that could underlie this operation. To the startup, these edges of the industry could use smart contracts running on a blockchain to connect everything. Plus, cars equipped with a repository of cryptocurrency could purchase services – say, a tune-up or an oil change – using an instantaneous and inexpensive payment rail.

Oaken sees itself taking care of the attestation of vehicles, inputting data on the blockchain to give vehicles a kind of digital identity. Once this identity is in place, Oaken can use GPS to follow the car, time-stamping its location on the blockchain. The data gleaned from the connection of the vehicle to the internet such as seasonality and traffic patterns, can also be used by consumers, application developers, and manufacturer "If everyone had everyone else’s data it would be a faster path to autonomous cars," according to James Johnson, co-founder and chief marketing officer at Oaken.

He said:

"If these [original equipment manufacturers] and others want to accelerate the path to level-five autonomous driving, the best way to do that is through the blockchain to share all that data."

But before autonomous cars, Oaken is looking to equip today's cars, those that could be manned by a human with the ability to purchase services using cryptocurrency. The company recently built out a proof-of-concept (PoC) for a United Arab Emirates-sponsored hackathon, which won first place. The project allowed Tesla cars to pay road tolls over the ethereum network. While nothing commercial has come out of the PoC yet, Gerryts said, the company has been head’s down on the project for the Toyota Research Institute, which announced this week that it will form a consortia with multiple blockchain startup partners to focus on potential uses of Blockchain.

Oaken has also been developing a system for short-term vehicle leasing. Whether it's individuals, manufacturers or other companies with fleets, the firm wants to find a way to allow them to rent out or lease vehicles in exchange for payment. And all that data and monetary transfer will happen over a blockchain. The startup has come up with a decentralized application (dapp) on the ethereum testnet that allows people to register their vehicles for short-term lease, and one at the other end that allows people to go in and sign up to lease those vehicles. With the announcement, Oaken and the other blockchain startups in the Toyota consortium – including Gem, BigchainDB and Commuterz – aim to capture the interest of large original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). That effort, they hope, will help get the blockchain-connected hardware into vehicles' components before market.

Unlocking the middleman's money

Uber’s valuation is more than $60bn, and all the company does is act as a matchmaker.

Johnson asked:

“What if there was a direct relationship between the vehicle owner and the consumer?”

By cutting out Uber or Lyft as the middleman, drivers would make more money without the up-to-20% fee they charge, and consumers would get cheaper rides. All manufacturers and OEMs are looking at how to get a piece of this pie. And while manufacturers might be selling less cars, Johnson continued, they’ll get more revenue per car – or rather than selling cars, offer pay-per-use models. Further, as Oaken is thinking about the future of smart cities, it makes sense to utilize the roadways for ride-sharing, because, in most US cities, there are about 100 times more roads than there are mass transit lines, Johnson said. “The opportunity is so big that I think all these different players in the [blockchain] space are now trying to get that solution built,” Johnson told CoinDesk.

Reinventing insurance

One area that will absolutely change as short-term leasing of individual cars becomes more popular is car insurance. “Insurance has always been built with 12 months in mind,” said Johnson. “Now, we’re building insurance products for five minutes or 20 minutes.” Many experts have predicted a move towards usage-based insurance (UBI) or 'pay as you drive' (PAYD), not only because of short-term leasing, but because of the proliferation of telematic devices and smartphones that can be used to monitor the driving behaviors of individuals in an effort to give them discounts or better premiums for good driving.

“Usage-based insurance will be dynamic enough to charge you less on Tuesdays than Wednesdays if you're a better driver on the former day,” said Gerryts. The problem with these models is that insurance is supposed to be a pooling mechanism for distributing costs across multiple people and, in turn, keeping them down. Plus, telematic monitoring can sometimes put certain demographics at a disadvantage. For instance, most insurers will dock points for driving late at night into the early morning because statistically speaking that’s when most accidents happen. However, this puts people that work late-night and overnight shifts at a disadvantage. However, Toyota’s insurance entity is also part of the research initiative, so these challenges are being worked through, according to Gerryts.

Johnson said:

“The discrimination of usage-based insurance – autonomous cars could solve this.”

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

The digital currency has blown through $100 milestones nearly every day

  

That’s how long it took the cryptocurrency bitcoin,

back in April 2013, to rise from $100 for a single bitcoin to $200.

Six hours—that’s how long it took for it to rise by its latest $100.

While the latter is an easier accomplishment—bitcoin only needed to rise 3.7% to add another $100 to its price, compared with 100% when it doubled to $200—it is also indicative of just how astonishingly fast the digital currency has been rising lately. It is up nearly 500% over the past 12 months, a sixfold rise, according to pricing site CoinDesk. Thus far in 2017, it is up 187%. Over just the past 10 days, it is up more than 60%. Here’s what gains like that translate to, If an investor were to have put $1,000 into bitcoin in 2010, that stake would be worth tens of millions of dollars today. Earlier this week, Charlie Bilello, a research director at investment adviser Pension Partners, created a table to show just how quickly Bitcoin has been bursting through $100 milestones. It hasn’t needed a double-digit number of days since April when it took nearly two months to move from $1,200 to $1,300.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.57%   jumped another 12% on Thursday, an increase of $300. The speed and scale of the rally have raised questions about whether prices could possibly be sustained around current levels, something analysts seemed mixed on.“We’ve watched the volatility in Bitcoin ever since we first bought it, and we’re not blind to the fact that prices are driven by speculation to a certain degree. However, we think its utility is very underappreciated, and that there isn’t as much speculation as people think, necessarily,” said Cathie Wood, chief executive officer of ARK Investment Management.

ARK has two actively managed exchange-traded funds that offer indirect exposure to bitcoin, counting the Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC, -7.23%  among their holdings. The BIT trades on the over-the-counter market and operates as a private, open-ended trust that invests solely in Bitcoin, with the value of its shares entirely derived from price moves in bitcoin.  The BIT typically trades at a high premium to bitcoin itself, but it has nonetheless followed the cryptocurrency higher in 2017—much higher. It is up more than 300% thus far this year, and it has more than doubled this week alone.

What is the future of bitcoin?he gains in bitcoin have been so large that the trust has become one of the top holdings of both the ARK Web x.0 ETF ARKW, +0.85%  and the A Innovation ETF ARKK, +0.18% the two actively managed funds that own What is the future of bitcoin?he gains in bitcoin have been so large that the trust has become one of the top holdings of both the ARK Web x.0 ETF ARKW, +0.85%  and the A Innovation ETF ARKK, +0.18% the two actively managed funds that own the trust (the ETFs only hold the trust, not bitcoin itself).the trust.

The trust is the largest holding of the Web ETF, comprising 8.24% of the portfolio. At 7.8%, the trust is the second-largest holding of the Innovation Fund. According to Wood, the ETFs both first bought the trust in July 2015, when it comprised 1% of the portfolios. Both ETFs have gained more than 40% in 2017, in large part due to the gain in the trust. And because they are among the few vehicles available for investors to get some kind of Bitcoin exposure—without buying it directly, something that can be complicated and risky—both have seen heavy increases in investor interest. The Web fund has seen inflows of $10.8 million in 2017, with $6.5 million of that coming over the past month, according to FactSet data. The Innovation ETF has had inflows of $16.6 million years to date, with $12 million of that coming over the past month.

Both funds have less than $30 million in assets, meaning the inflows this year have increased their size by about 50%. Wood said ARK may sell some of its BIT holdings soon, as the rules of the funds stipulate that it can’t have more than 10% of its holdings in an illiquid security—something the trust qualifies as. Despite the recent rally, she said she wasn’t necessarily worried that prices had gotten ahead of themselves. “Bitcoin is less than 50% of the crypto space; it used to be 80%,” she said. “That happened while its price was escalating; it’s just that the price of other crypto assets has escalated more, which suggests more speculation in those. But you can see that bitcoin transactions relative to the trading volume have been moving up, while developers are developing more. Both of those are good fundamental signs.”

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin is soaring —
Here's what the Cryptocurrency is all about

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Russian Central Bank Wants to Treat Bitcoin As Digital Commodity

  

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Price $4,500 In South Korea As Uptake Race Continues

  

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin surges 12% to all-time high above $2,700; has now doubled in May

• Bitcoin rose more than 12 percent to a record $2,791.70 before losing some ground, according to CoinDesk.
• That's more than twice its April 30 price of $1,347.96.
• The currency has gained more than 45 percent in a week amid strong demand from Asian investors and two digital currency conferences in New York.

In another intraday jump of more than $300, Bitcoin surged to a record Thursday on strong Asian demand overnight.
Bitcoin jumped more than 12 percent to an all-time high of $2,791.70, more than twice it's April 30 price of $1,347.96 according to CoinDesk. The digital currency later lost some ground to trade at $2,779.81. At Thursday's record, Bitcoin has now gained more than 45 percent in a week and more than 180 percent this year.

Bitcoin 30-day chart

"There is no question that we are in the middle of a price frenzy,"

Brian Kelly of BKCM said in a note to clients Thursday. "There will be a correction and it could be severe, but it's unclear if that correction will start from current prices of $2700 or from some place much higher." Kelly, a CNBC contributor, manages a hedge fund focused on digital currencies. The globally traded asset swept past $2,400 and $2,500 on Wednesday Eastern Time, following a late Tuesday announcement that brought some resolution to a heated debate about the future development of the digital currency. The Digital Currency Group said in an online Medium post that 83 percent of bitcoin miners supported a "Bitcoin Scaling Agreement" for a specific technological upgrade.

Bitcoin prices then pushed higher overnight as demand from Japan, China, and South Korea remained solid.
Trade denominated in Japanese yen accounted for about 31 percent of trade volume Thursday morning Eastern Time, while Chinese yuan and Korean won accounted for 16 and 12 percent, respectively, according to CryptoCompare.
Japanese interest in bitcoin has risen ever since the government approved bitcoin as a legal payment method in April. Over the weekend, yen-denominated trade volume accounted for more than half of total volume, helping send Bitcoin above $2,000 for the first time. Gains in bitcoin accelerated this week amid two major digital currency conferences in New York: Consensus and the Token Summit.

Digital currency enthusiasts at the summit's pre-event reception Wednesday evening attributed bitcoin's rise to increased uses for the currency, the scaling agreement, and interest in other cryptocurrencies such as ethereum, which some see as a potential structure for a decentralized, next-generation Internet. Also called ether, the currency has run up more than 2,000 percent this year, while bitcoin has more than doubled in price. "I think there's a lot of hype around this," Sebastian Wain, business development manager at Argentina-based developer CoinFabrik, told CNBC. He's cautious but a buyer of digital currencies in the long run as "the fundamentals of the technology are here to stay." Wain said he has mostly sold bitcoin to buy other digital currencies and has about $100,000 in ethereum.

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor
Please click either Link to Learn more about – TCC-Bitcoin.

Alan Zibluk – Markethive Founding Member