All posts by Alan B. Zibluk

Golden money making opportunities

If you are an entrepreneur, a business, a shoe store, an affiliate or referral promotor, musician, artist, attorney, teacher, waitress, anything that requires a buyer or consumer or subscriber to something you have or are selling or promoting, then you need a market. Within that market are customers and those customers are often referred to as “leads”.

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Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Fully Facing Our Fears

Learn how to face your fears and live in peace

Written by June Hunt on 01/05/2018

Series: Weekly Devotional

Tags: FaithFearGodTrust


Fear not, for I am with you; be not dismayed, for I am your God; I will strengthen you, I will help you, I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.

Isaiah 41:10

If I am walking down a path, and spot a rattlesnake at my feet, I should feel fear. But, reacting rashly could cause me to be bitten. If a bee were to land on me, I must not react to it to avoid being stung. The bee sting and the snakebite are defense mechanisms designed for their own self-protection.

Fear is a God-given response to danger. Sometimes it’s clear where the fear is from, but other times, it is hidden—causing a deeper emotional impact. God created us to react to fear in a protective way with a fight, flight, or freeze response. While fear is a natural, God-given emotion, fearfulness is not. Fearfulness causes us to live as prisoners, in constant worry over a threat that may or may not exist. We can live in a state of fearfulness when we feel threatened—either physically or emotionally—in these three areas: love, significance, and security.

Your love from others feels in danger.

Do you ever fear losing someone important in your life? Maybe you’ve thought, “If I lose the dearest person in my life, I won’t know what to do or how I can go on living.” You might fear losing relationships if your performance, talents, or abilities are not “good enough.” Or maybe it’s about declining physical attractiveness, fearing that if you start looking older or put on weight, you will lose the affection of others. The solution to the fear of losing love is to know that the Lord loves you beyond measure.  “As high as the heavens are above the earth, so great is his love for those who fear him…” (Psalm 103:11).

Your significance feels in danger.

Do you find yourself fearing that you might lose your sense of identity? Perhaps you’ve thought, “If I lose my job, I’ll lose all I’ve worked to achieve.” You fear losing a sense of fulfillment, thinking that you are a failure if you don’t reach your goals. Or you’re concerned about your reputation, fearing that others will lose respect for you if they get to know the real you. The solution to overcoming the fear of losing significance is to understand your value to God. He chose to save you and has planned a future for you. …   “‘For I know the plans I have for you,’ declares the LORD, ‘plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope’” (Jeremiah 29:11).  

Your security feels in danger.

Do you worry about financial security? Perhaps you’ve thought, “If I don’t do well on this project, I might lose my job. Then I won’t be able to support myself or my family.” Maybe you fear losing your home and having nowhere to live, no means for survival. Or perhaps you have fear about your declining physical health; maybe you constantly worry about getting sick or dying. The solution is in knowing that true and lasting security is found in a personal relationship with the Lord. …  “In God I trust; I shall not be afraid. What can man do to me?” (Psalm 56:11).  

God can help when we experience fear and danger. Turn to God and take this verse to heart … “When I am afraid, I put my trust in you” (Psalm 56:3).


Pray this week:

Dear God, I thank You that You are my Shepherd. You guide me … You protect me … and You give me Your peace. You are the One who restores my soul. You know my weaknesses and the times I’ve caved in to fear. Now, in my weakness, I choose to rely on Your strength. By Your power, move me from fear to faith. As I turn my fear over to You, use it for good in my life to remind me of my need for You. In Jesus’ name, Amen.
 


What in your life is currently causing you to fear? What would it look like to trust God and move in faith in your situation? 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin CRYPTO:BTC Market Capitalization Hits 6252 Billion

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) Market Capitalization Hits $62.52 Billion

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) Market Capitalization Hits $62.52 Billion

Bitcoin (CURRENCY:BTC) traded down 2.5% against the dollar during the 1-day period ending at 23:00 PM E.T. on December 22nd. One Bitcoin coin can now be bought for approximately $3,576.61 on exchanges including xBTCe, OKEx, ABCC and IDAX. Over the last seven days, Bitcoin has traded down 12.1% against the dollar. Bitcoin has a total market capitalization of $62.52 billion and approximately $4.79 billion worth of Bitcoin was traded on exchanges in the last 24 hours.

 

BTC is a proof-of-work (PoW) coin that uses the SHA-256 hashing algorithm. It was first traded on January 3rd, 2009. Bitcoin’s total supply is 17,480,612 coins. The official website for Bitcoin is bitcoin.org. Bitcoin’s official Twitter account is @bitcoin and its Facebook page is accessible here. The official message board for Bitcoin is bitcointalk.org. The Reddit community for Bitcoin is /r/bitcoin and the currency’s Github account can be viewed here.

 

According to CryptoCompare, “Balances – block chain The block chain is a shared public ledger on which the entire Bitcoin network relies. All confirmed transactions are included in the block chain. This way, Bitcoin wallets can calculate their spendable balance and new transactions can be verified to be spending bitcoins that are actually owned by the spender. The integrity and the chronological order of the block chain are enforced with cryptography. Transactions – private keys A transaction is a transfer of value between Bitcoin wallets that gets included in the block chain. Bitcoin wallets keep a secret piece of data called a private key or seed, which is used to sign transactions, providing a mathematical proof that they have come from the owner of the wallet. The signature also prevents the transaction from being altered by anybody once it has been issued. All transactions are broadcast between users and usually begin to be confirmed by the network in the following 10 minutes, through a process called mining. Processing – mining Mining is a distributed consensus system that is used to confirm waiting transactions by including them in the block chain. It enforces a chronological order in the block chain, protects the neutrality of the network, and allows different computers to agree on the state of the system. To be confirmed, transactions must be packed in a block that fits very strict cryptographic rules that will be verified by the network. These rules prevent previous blocks from being modified because doing so would invalidate all following blocks. Mining also creates the equivalent of a competitive lottery that prevents any individual from easily adding new blocks consecutively in the block chain. This way, no individuals can control what is included in the block chain or replace parts of the block chain to roll back their own spends.”

 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

No atheist ever could show prove of what they are assuming or believing

No atheist ever could show prove of what they are assuming or believing. And to assume is like you don't know and that is very bad cause some atheist are educated. Which scares me.

 

Pseudo-science anticipated (1 Timothy 6:20). The theory of evolution contradicts the observable evidence. The Bible warned us in advance that there would be those who would profess: “profane and idle babblings and contradictions of what is falsely called knowledge (science).” True science agrees with the Creator’s Word.

 

Human conscience understood (Romans 2:14-15). The Bible reveals that God has impressed His moral law onto every human heart. Con means with and science means knowledge. We know it is wrong to murder, lie, steal, etc. Only the Bible explains that each human has a God-given knowledge of right and wrong.

 

Love explained (Matthew 22:37-40; 1 John 4:7-12). Evolution cannot explain love. Yet, God’s Word reveals that the very purpose of our existence is to know and love God and our fellow man. God is love, and we were created in His image to reflect His love.

 

The cause of suffering revealed (Genesis 3; Isaiah 24:5-6). The earth is subject to misery, which appears at odds with our wonderfully designed universe. However, the Bible, not evolution, explains the origin of suffering. When mankind rebelled against God, the curse resulted – introducing affliction, pain and death into the world.

 

The Bible is inspired by the Creator. Therefore it is no surprise that life’s ultimate questions are answered within its pages. The Bible reveals the purpose of our existence. Scripture alone explains where our conscience came from. And no other source explains the root cause of death. Seeing that all die, wouldn’t it be wise to search for the remedy in the only book that proves it was inspired by God? The Bible offers the only remedy for sin, suffering, and death. God’s Word presents the only perfect, sinless Savior – one who died for our sins and rose from the dead. Jesus is the Creator (John 1; Colossians 1). He said “I and My Father are one” (John 10:30). He said, “I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through Me” (John 14:6). And He promises His followers: “I give them eternal life, and they shall never perish” (John 10:28). Your eternal destiny will be determined by your choice. There is only one provision for sin. Jesus died in your place. Only by faith in Christ’s finished work will you be saved. This is God’s free gift offered to all. Please do not let pride, religion, opinions, or love for sin separate you from God. No sin is worth an eternity in hell. Please heed Jesus’ words – “Repent, and believe in the gospel” (Mark 1:15). If you do, you will live in heaven with our awesome Creator forever!

 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Tim Draper Paid 18 Million For His First Bitcoin Batch What’s it Worth Now?

Tim Draper Paid $18 Million For His First Bitcoin Batch, What's it Worth Now?

Tim Draper Paid $18 Million For His First Bitcoin Batch, What’s it Worth Now?

If someone was to ask about fervent crypto investors, who would come to mind? For most Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors, Mike Novogratz, the Winklevoss Twins, and Tim Draper would be the first mentioned. And for good reason too, as the aforementioned four have invested copious amounts of time, money, and mental capacity into the nascent blockchain world.

Tim Draper, often clad in a grey suit, white dress shirt, and purple Bitcoin logo-studded tie, recently divulged his hero origin story, if you will, taking to Coindesk.

Tim Draper — A Fervent Crypto Bull

To celebrate Bitcoin’s tenth birthday, Tim Draper, the world-renowned American venture capitalist and forward-thinker, wrote an op-ed piece for a recent Coindesk feature series. Draper, whose investor son also believes cryptocurrencies are also tantalizing, noted that it was fifteen years ago when he saw value in digital currencies

However, a viable digital medium of value didn’t appear in Draper’s scope until 2011, when Peter Vincennes, chief executive at Coinlab, met with the investor to introduce him to Bitcoin. Vincennes and Draper hit it off near immediately, with the latter asking for the former to purchase $250,000 worth of BTC on Mt. Gox.

Draper was satisfied with his investment, keeping the coins on the now-defunct exchange in a likely state of naivety. But of course, Mt. Gox collapsed, with Draper losing his thousands of BTC, which he never really got his digital hands on, as it were.

Yet, later, Draper was given an opportunity to purchase cryptocurrency again, when the U.S. Marshall’s office auctioned nearly 30,000 BTC. The entranced venture capitalist, still reeling from the Mt. Gox collapse, decided to attend the auction, purchasing 29,656 coins at $632 apiece — $14 above the going rate on spot exchanges. In all, he spent $18.74 million on Bitcoin.

And since that day, he’s been overly optimistic about cryptocurrency and related technologies. This shouldn’t be much of a surprise, especially considering his beefy vested interest. Regardless, many have seen his perpetual, seemingly undying support of this asset class as a positive sign.

Even during 2017’s market run-up, which sent Bitcoin to $20,000, he didn’t sell his stack for fiat. And while many common Joes chirp at Draper for this, claiming that he’s an irresponsible investor, the venture capitalist is doing just fine financially.
 

Draper’s Bitcoin Outlook

At current rates, Draper would be left unscathed if he liquidated his Bitcoin stash, as he would still be able to secure $107 million if sufficient liquidity/demand is present. However, Draper, seemingly not willing to sell his BTC, sees even higher highs for this industry in the future.

The zealot, now emotionally involved in this industry, noted that there’s still “great potential” in Bitcoin. He noted that not only could BTC become a global, decentralized, frictionless store of value and digital cash, but blockchain could get implemented in some of society’s most important facets. Summarizing his points into a short and sweet quip, he wrote, “[blockchain] is honest, incorruptible, secure, and fair.”
 

NICK CHONG | JANUARY 13, 2019 | 12:00 AM

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

The Unforgivable Sin

Matthew 12:31-32 – The Unforgivable Sin
By Jeremy Myers 
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Most Christians have wondered at some point in their life if they have committed the unforgivable sin. I have personally talked with Christians who were divorced, got an abortion, or committed adultery, and thought they had committed the unforgivable sin. Others think that suicide is the unforgivable sin. If a person commits suicide, then they are going to hell. Then I have talked with some who believe that the unforgivable sin is rejecting God. They believe that if you are a Christian and you go back to living like you aren’t a Christian, or if you curse Jesus, or deny that you ever knew Him, then this is the unforgivable sin.

Unforgivable SinI recently wrote a book about the unforgivable sin, which you can get on Amazon. It is titled, Why you have not committed the Unforgivable Sin.

You can read a short summary of the book here and learn about the unpardonable sin. Below is an the text of a sermon I preached on Matthew 12:31-32, which is where Jesus warns about the unforgivable sin.

All Christians can Commit All Sins
But did you know that there are people in the Bible who have committed one or all of these sins whom we all expect to see in heaven? Let me show you.

Take divorce first. Did you know that God is a divorced person? We read in Jeremiah 3:8 that God divorced Israel. Yet we certainly all expect to see God in heaven.

What about abortion? They didn’t really have abortion back then the way we do now, but if you believe, as I do, that abortion is taking the life of another human being, then we can call abortion the murder of babies. Abortion is a form of infanticide. Yet we know from Ezekiel 16:21 that many of the Israelites did this as a form of idol worship. They offered their children to false idols as human sacrifices. While not all Israelites had eternal life, some of those who did this will still be in heaven.

Then there is adultery. David, the man after God’s own heart committed adultery with Bathsheba (2 Sam. 11:4), as did many of the other kings and rulers of Israel. Paul sometimes writes about adultery among church members who will make it to heaven, but will lose their inheritance and reward there. Suicide is talked about too. Samson (Jdg. 16:29-30) committed suicide, and we believe he will be in heaven. King Saul also committed suicide (1 Sam. 31:4-5); 1 Chr. 10:4-5), and he will be in heaven as well. The most famous example of someone who rejected and denied Christ is Peter. He even used profanity and curses in denying any connection to Jesus Christ. Yet we know that he was forgiven and will be in heaven.

In fact, there are a whole host of other sins mentioned in the Bible that true believers have committed, yet we know from other Scriptures that these people will still be in heaven. The Bible talks about believers who commit idolatry (1 King 11:1-10). We read of others who believe only for a while and then fall away (Luke 8:13). We read of some who do not continue in the Word of Christ (John 8:31), do not abide in Christ (John 15:1-8), become disqualified in the race of the Christian life (1 Cor 9:24-27), resist God’s correction up to the point of physical death (1 Cor 11:30-32).

Others stray from the faith (1 Tim 1:5-6), shipwreck their faith (1 Tim 1:18-20), fall away from the faith (1 Tim 4:1-3), deny the faith (1 Tim 5:8), cast off initial faith to follow Satan (1 Tim. 5:12-15), stray from the faith by loving money (1 Tim. 6:9-10), stray from the faith by teaching false doctrine (1 Tim. 6:20-21), and deny Christ and live faithless lives (2 Tim 2:11-13).

We have the examples of people in the Bible who murdered and committed adultery, and yet were said to be saved (Jacob’s sons). Other men, like Solomon, Amaziah and Uzziah will most likely be in heaven, but did not live very faithfully to God during their lives. Some of them committed adultery, had multiple wives, committed murder, and fell into idolatry.

Then there is the righteous man who commits unrighteousness and dies as a result of it in Ezekiel 18, and the man in 1 Corinthians 5 who was involved in an incestuous relationship with his mother in law. Lot who committed incest with his daughters. Ananais and Sapphira in Acts 5 and so many other examples in Scripture of genuine believers who fell away.

The point of all of this is to show that the grace of God runs deeper and wider than most of us will ever know.

The ocean of God’s grace never runs dry. The limits of God’s grace never are reached.

But what about when someone commits the unforgivable sin?

unforgivable sin

Is There A Sin God Does not Forgive?
We have all encountered the troubling passage in Matthew 12:31-32 which indicates that there is a sin which the grace of God does not cover.

Matthew 12:31-32 is often pointed to as proof that we can lose our salvation. The sin mentioned in this passage is often referred to as the unpardonable sin or unforgivable sin. It is said that if you commit this sin, then no matter how good of a Christian you have been up to that point and no matter how much you repent or confess afterward, you will not make it to heaven.

Let us take a closer look at Matthew 12:31-32 to see what it really says. Let’s begin with Matthew 12:31.

Matthew 12:31. Therefore I say to you, every sin and blasphemy will be forgiven men, but the blasphemy against the Spirit will not be forgiven men.

We learn in Matthew 12:31 that every sin will be forgiven, except one – the blasphemy against the Spirit.

Let’s look first at this concept that every sin and blasphemy will be forgiven men. We know what sin is. It is when we do something contrary to God’s character or will. When God tells us what He wants us to do, and we don’t do it, we sin. James puts it this way, “Anyone who knows the good he ought to do, and doesn’t do it, sins.”

Blasphemy is similar. The most basic definition of blasphemy is to speak evil or injuriously about God. So blasphemy is a sin of the tongue. A sin that uses words and thoughts rather than actions. So right away, all of this sins listed above that involve actions are not what Jesus is talking about. In fact, the only sin mentioned above that involves actions and thoughts is the sin of denying Christ and speaking against Him. So blasphemy against Christ is to speak evil or injuriously about Him. But jump ahead to Matthew 12:32. Look what Jesus says there. He says that speaking against the Son of Man will be forgiven.

So all of the possible sins we began with are now seen to be forgivable. Divorce, adultery, abortion, suicide all fall under the category of “every sin” and these are all forgiven. If you have committed any of these sins, you are forgiven! Jesus said it! All sins will be forgiven!

But what about blasphemies? Blasphemies will also be forgiven, even those spoken against Jesus Christ. If you have spoken a word against Jesus Christ, this too is forgiven. You have been forgiven.

It is only the blasphemy against the Holy Spirit that will not be forgiven.

But what does this mean?

What is Blasphemy Against the Holy Spirit?
What is the blasphemy against the Holy Spirit? Matthew 12:32 helps us answer this question.

Matthew 12:32. Anyone who speaks a word against the Son of Man, it will be forgiven him; but whoever speaks against the Holy Spirit, it will not be forgiven him, either in this age or in the age to come.

The sin that will not ever be forgiven is not speaking against Jesus Christ, but speaking against the Holy Spirit.

But what is this sin, and how is it committed?

Have you Committed the Unforgivable Sin?
So, how do you know if you have committed the unforgivable sin?

First, if you have believed in Jesus Christ for eternal life, then you have eternal life (John 3:16; 5:24; 6:47) and it is no longer possible for you to blaspheme the Holy Spirit in this way.

Since you have believed in Jesus for eternal life, the Holy Spirit has stopped working upon you as He does with non-Christians, and is now indwelling within you to mold you, shape you, and form you into Christlikeness. Yes, you can still sin against the Holy Spirit by quenching or grieving the Holy Spirit, but you cannot blaspheme the Spirit in the way Jesus talks about in Matthew 12:31-32.

So if you are a believer, don’t worry about committing the unforgivable sin. The chance to commit it is forever in your past.

If, however, you are not a Christian, and are worrying about whether you have committed this sin, be encouraged. Nobody who commits the blasphemy against the Spirit wonders if they have.

People who have committed the unforgivable sin do not care that they have committed it. They do not even wonder if they have. They simply don’t care about such things anymore because the Holy Spirit has stopped convicting them of sin.

The unbeliever who commits this sin has become so morally and spiritually blind that their heart is hardened to the point that they no longer care about spiritual things and will never believe in Jesus.

So if you are worrying about whether or not you have committed this sin, be encouraged … for caring about whether or not you commit it is clear evidence you have not!

If you still worry about the unforgivable sin, then make sure you will never be able to commit it. How? Believe in Jesus for eternal life (John 3:16; 5:24; 6:47). The Holy Spirit is drawing you to Jesus, and He wants you to believe in Jesus. If you believe in Jesus, then the Spirit regenerates, indwells, baptizes, and seals you, and you can never commit the unforgivable sin. Ever. Why not? Because this sin can only be committed by those who are not yet believers and upon whom the Spirit is working to draw them to Jesus. Once they are “in the family” the work of the Spirit changes from drawing you to Jesus to conforming you into the image of Jesus. And no matter what, He will never stop doing this. Never.

Yes, you might have committed some terrible sin. You might have said something you really regret. But guess what? Whatever sin you may have committed, whatever words you may have said, you are still being convicted by it, which is good. This means the Holy Spirit is at work in your life to point this out to you. God has not abandoned you to your sin. So simply confess this sin, and abandon yourself to the love of God.

God’s grace covers over all your sin, past, present, and future.

God wants all men to be saved, and through the Holy Spirit, He draws all men to Jesus Christ. The light shines in their lives and grace calls them to Jesus.

If a person wants forgiveness and desires the love of God, God will never turn such a person away. Not ever.

The person who has committed the unforgivable sin does not want forgiveness, does not desire the love of God, and does not even have a thought for God in their lives. People who blaspheme the Holy Spirit have so hardened their hearts that they do not realize the condition they are in, nor do they care. They are not crying out to God for light or help or salvation. They just live their lives without a thought for God or a care in the world for spiritual matters. The Holy Spirit has ceased to work on their hearts and they are completely given over to the darkness of their hearts and the spiritual blindness of their eyes.

Blasphemy against the Holy Spirit is a serious sin that only unbelievers can commit, and even then, only when they have resisted the Holy Spirit for many years and have come to the point that they so completely reject what He is trying to do in their life, that they openly and verbally denounce Him and Jesus Christ and the feelings of sin and guilt in their own lives as the work of Satan in their lives.

Unforgivable SinI am not sure if we can ever know if a person has committed the unforgivable sin or not in their lives, but one thing we can know – if we have believed in Jesus for eternal life, we have already responded positively to the Holy Spirit’s work in our life, and so the opportunity to commit the unforgivable sin is past.

The unforgivable sin is not a sin a Christian can commit.

At the same time, if an unbeliever fears they have committed this sin, then they clearly have not, because someone who has committed the unforgivable sin would have such a hard heart that such thoughts would not even enter their mind.

If you’re afraid you’ve committed the unpardonable sin, stop worrying. Jesus is not a liar!

If you believe in Him for eternal life, then you’ve got it. It’s that simple. He guarantees it.

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin: After this breakdown 3k is in sight again

Bitcoin: After this breakdown, $3k is in sight again

Bitcoin: After this breakdown, $3k is in sight again

  • Bitcoin breaks key levels again after breaching $4k.

  • Long term bottom is not in place yet.

Bitcoin, the poster boy of cryptocurrencies, has broken down of some key levels after breaking below $4,000 and is now at the risk of breaching $3,000 too as long term bottom is not yet in place for the largest crypto.

BTC/USD trading flat on day at $3,633 and in less than one percent range for the day – typical low volume and even lower volatility weekend trading that is. Earlier this week, Bitcoin and all the other major coins saw massive sell-off all over again, resulting in BTC breaking $4,000 again and as a result also broke some key levels on the short term (180-minute) as well as long term (daily) chart.

On the 180-minute chart, BTC broke off a key ascending trendline support that was forming after it made a temporary bottom around $3,100 and bounced quite a bit. In this bounce it did attempt to break past the descending trendline resistance on the daily chart – once in late Novemeber, then again around Christmas and last attempt on Tuesday this week. Failing all the time and finally bears got control of the battleground. There is every chance that bulls' resolve to hold on to November lows and $3,000 would be ferociously tested in the coming days.

BTC/USD 180-minute chart:

BTC/USD daily chart:

Manoj B Rawal

FXStreet

 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Flash Crash – Fear And Panic Spread Through Crypto Currency Markets On 10 Losses

 

Bitcoin Flash Crash – Fear And Panic Spread Through Crypto Currency Markets On 10% Losses

  • There is a call of fear and panic again as the crypto market faces another big daily drop.

  • A large number of top tier cryptocurrencies have experienced major bull runs, a pullback was expected and warranted.

Cryptocurrency move lower is par for the course

Above: Bitcoin down over 10% during Thursday session.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a significant flash crash during Thursday’s trading. Prices had been trading in a very congested range ever since Sunday’s jump. The move today, while certainly painful for any ‘hodling’ crypto investor/speculator, is certainly par for the course – and the behaviour and nature of the move is extremely common. Just as we saw a massive jump in price on Sunday, that same move happened today, except down. What was the distinguishing feature? A single entity pushing price in an extremely short period of time. If we look at the chart above, we see the initial push lower from 4001.73 to 3813.98 in a 5-minute span. Prices then consolidated – volume was almost non-existent. Price sat, literally, right on top of the upper trendline before it’s next drop. The next major dive lasted for a total of 10 minutes and dropped from 3777.14 to 3560. Price halted exactly on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent swing high of 4239.39 to the most recent swing low of 3185.17. Note that I did draw the retracement all the way to the extreme swing low – that is the incorrect way to draw an accurate Fibonacci retracement.

It’s profit, not panic

Above: Cardano sheds almost 20% of its value in one day.

 

While the moves today do seem ugly – well, they are – it’s also not a surprise and shouldn’t be a surprise. A significant number of high market cap cryptocurrencies have moved up significantly in the past 30 days. Cardano, which has lost over -18% at one point during the day, is a perfect example of this. Cardano has been in an uptrend since December 15th, 2018 – nearly 30 days straight of a bull move. During that rise, Cardano has gained 101.72%. So a pullback of even 30% is warranted. Litecoin has also experienced a significant rise in both time and price. For over 25 days, Litecoin has rallied from 22.17 to the swing high of 41.27 – an 86.15 gain against the days -13.56% move lower. In any other major market, these moves would be scary – but for cryptocurrencies these moves are normal. It’s not surprising that some people may want to take some of their positions off the table during this most recent bull run. And the move today doesn’t mean that we will continue to sell off to create lower lows (or lows below the December 2018 low). It will be very interesting to see if traders buy this dip – or any dip lower. If that does happen, then we can assume we are in a new buyers market and a market where we can buy the dips instead of shorting the rallies.

 

Posted by Jonathan Morgan in Bitcoin, and modified 11 Jan 2019 05:05

Bitcoin Flash Crash -  Fear And Panic Spread Through Crypto Currency Markets On 10% Losses

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakthrough Spartans and Winklevoss brothers hold no matter what

Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakthrough; Spartans and Winklevoss brothers hold no matter what!

Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakthrough; Spartans and Winklevoss brothers hold no matter what!

  • TI VERA Band Indicator implies a strong movement in either direction.

  • Winklevoss brothers stick to long-term positive views.

According to technical analysts who base their forecasts on historical patterns, Bitcoin is on the verge of a strong move. However, the direction of that move remains unclear at this stage. Considering that the GTI VERA Band is narrowing, one might suggest that Bitcoin is getting ready for a forceful break out from its current range.

While the coin has been moving within a strongest bullish trend since September and regained over 27% of its value from the recent low touched at $3,128, experts remain cautious about short-term Bitcoins perspectives.

More pain before gain

“It’s unlikely that the bottom is in for Bitcoin. I am certainly willing to change my mind, but the preponderance of evidence leads us to believe that we’ll see more lows before we head higher," Travis Kling, founder of the crypto hedge fund Ikigai commented, as cited by Bloomberg.

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss also stick to their long term forecasts and urge crypto enthusiasts to ignore short-term developments.

"We believe in the long game. Spartans hold!" Tyler Winklevoss said in the chat during Reddit's AMA (Ask Me Anything) session.

He is sure that Bitcoin will resume the upside as it is a true digital gold that is even better store of value than gold itself.

"We believe Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold. If we’re right, then over time the market cap of Bitcoin will surpass the ~7 trillion dollar market cap of gold," he explained.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is changing hands at $4,000, while the critical support is seen at $3,800, which is a confluence of SMA100 and SMA50 (4-chart). However, the coin needs to recover above $4,110 (the highest level of 2019) to improve its short-term technical setup and resume the recovery process towards $4,234 (pre-Christmas high).

TREND INDEX

Bearish

OB/OS INDEX

Neutral

VOLATILITY INDEX

Shrinking

Updated at Jan 10, 05:30 GMT

FORECAST BIAS

Sideways

 

Tanya Abrosimova

FXStreet

 

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

The Case for a 2020 Bitcoin Bull Run

The Case for a 2020 Bitcoin Bull Run

The Case for a 2020 Bitcoin Bull Run

Since the end of 2018, price action has been demonstrably negative, which surprised many expecting the end of Q4 historical “pump” in prices.

The price plummet appears largely driven by negative sentiment and swathes of selling pressure after the 2018 support level of $6,000 finally broke (dashed black line). This selling pressure kept prices well into the oversold range (using RSI and SWTO) for several weeks.

Only recently, has price begun to rebound. Even so, RSI and SWTO are still trending downward (black arrows), which may point to further price weakness at the beginning of Q1 2019 while bitcoin searches for a sustainable bottom.

Volatility ≠ Price Growth

As mentioned prior, many market commentators and participants assumed, incorrectly, that Q4 was always a strong period for market price growth, specifically from mid-November to the end of December. However, what many viewed as historically consistent price growth during this period, was in fact historically consistent volatility growth.

The graphic below shows historical daily volatility trends of bitcoin on a yearly basis since 2013. Thus, the supposition that many bulls were wrongly betting on was that higher volatility always equates to higher prices.

*Gdax/Coinbase Pro

As the volatility chart illustrates, the volatility trends of BTC, since 2013, do follow predictable patterns, culminating in higher volatility during Q4. This dynamic unfolded again in 2018 as price volatility compressed from October to mid-November (black lines), which typically precedes a breakout in price action. However, this time, volatility broke out to the downside for bitcoin.

After analysing the overall trend in 2018 (demonstrably bearish), price volatility compression, historical volatility patterns, and fundamental indicators, it should have been more clear to market participants that the probability of a negative price breakout was far higher than to the upside.

Fundamental Indicators

Fundamental indicators can be quite useful for ascertaining a “narrative” of price movements and patterns, as long as the narrative is rooted in non-subjective data exploration. However, given the small sample size of bitcoin market cycles (n=10), each indicators output and predictive ability should be taken with a “grain of salt”.

Nic Carter from Castle Island Ventures / CoinMetrics and Antoine Le Calvez from Blockchain.info recently pioneered a new concept called realized cap (capitalization). The differentiation between realized cap and market cap being “instead of counting all of the mined coins at equal, current price, the UTXOs are aggregated and assigned a price based on the BTC/USD market price at the time when said UTXOs last moved.”

David Puell and Murad Mahmudov do an excellent job explaining these terms and significance further in their article.

Using data from CoinMetrics, the significance of realized cap compared to market cap can be visualized quite dramatically, albeit via a small sample size. The crossover points between market cap and realized cap can be viewed almost similar to golden crosses, whereby market cap breaching above realized cap is a re-ignition of a bull cycle, while a cross beneath may indicate the final stretch of a bear cycle. Beyond the aforementioned, this comparison offers lessons which may bear out or “repeat” in 2019.

Looking at the graphic, market cap went beneath realized cap on December 28, 2014, and stayed beneath realized cap until October 28, 2015, which coincides with the data-validated, high volatility period for bitcoin.

In this case, volatility coincided with price growth for bitcoin and kicked off the start of an amazing two-year bull run for bitcoin. This time around, market cap fell beneath realized cap on November 20, 2018. So, if history repeats itself (which is a tepid assertion), an investor might expect further price declines in 2019 followed by sideways trading, until a reignition of a new bull cycle at the end of Q4 2019 (November to December 2019).

Correlation to Δprice of 0.19

Additionally, using realized cap, an additional ratio or oscillator can be created that further explains bitcoin’s market cycles, market cap to realized cap (MVRM). The MVRM provides a useful indicator that visualizes the above dynamic via one ratio.

For example, historically, a value beneath 1.0 is undervalued while a value above 3.0 is overvalued; and above 4.0 is a negative inflection for prices. Currently, MVRM is 0.82 and the all-time low is 0.56. So, despite bitcoin being in undervalued territory, MVRM still possibly has further room to fall, which is consistent with the end of Q4 2019 narrative.

Further support of the significance of MVRM for price movements can be seen by the correlation between price and MVRM of 0.19, and correlation between price and MVRM of 0.98, which is extraordinarily high.

*coinmetrics.io

Network transaction volume to active addresses ratio (TAAR)

This ratio acts as an “equilibrium” gauge of bitcoin’s price to fundamentals valuation, where transaction volume and active addresses both represent “quantity and quality” growth of the bitcoin network; validated by 0.15 and 0.07 correlation between price, respectively.

For example, when TAAR and price are closely distributed, price (valuation) and fundamentals are aligned in equilibrium; and when either TAAR or price deviate substantially from each other, price is out of equilibrium which has historically resulted in price devaluation (albeit small sample size). The market’s recent selloff has helped reduce the gap between price and TAAR, which has persisted since Q4 2017.

Correlation to Δprice of 0.13

The 30 day moving average of TAAR is ~$2500 while TAAR daily is ~$2000, thus an “equilibrium” range for price appears between $2,000 and $3,000. *Note: prices seldom mean revert directly to their equilibrium level, they typically over-correct, which makes further price depreciation beyond the stated levels possible. Additionally, as can be seen on the logarithmic chart, price has bounced off TAAR’s 30-day MA twice in 2018 (black boxes), and has most recently rebounded momentarily.

The final price flush before finding a stable bottom will likely coincide with price falling beneath the TAAR 30 day MA, price recovering that level, and then TAAR beginning to trend upward once more.

*coinmetrics.io

Similar to MVRM, the TAAR to price ratio is an oscillator that visualizes the same dynamic via one ratio. Historically, a ratio of 1.5 and above is undervalued, 1.0 to 2.0 is “safe”, and beneath 1.0 (“equilibrium”) is overvalued. Currently, the oscillator is ~0.70 which still indicates overvaluation, but the overall trend back towards 1.0 is positive.

Conclusion

While the recent price action for bitcoin has been harshly negative, these market clearing events have begun the normalization process for bitcoin’s price valuation, which can be seen in several indicators. Per the MVRM analysis above, if history repeats itself, price will likely fall further, then trade sideways until the end of Q4, then reignite a new bull market.

An additional verification of this narrative will be if the TAAR to price oscillator enters undervalued territory above 1.50 in 2019, especially, prior to Q4.
 

Sam Ouimet

Jan 9, 2019 at 05:25 UTC

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member