Bitcoin ‘could rise by 84 per cent’ in 2019

After a horror 2018, these experts are tipping a bitcoin bounce that could see the cryptocurrency end the year at nearly double its current price.

After peaking at $US20,000 in December 2017 off the back of a global cryptocurrency mania, bitcoin lost 71 per cent of its value and spent most of last year hovering around the $US4000 mark. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at just under $US3500.

Of the six fintech experts who offered their predictions, Digital Capital Management chief operating officer Ben Ritchie was the most bullish, tipping a year-end price of $US9500. The average price prediction was just under $US7000.

“Two things to look out for in 2019 will be whether we will see decoupling of the cryptocurrencies, as to date they have trended in a relatively similar manner,” Mr Richie said in the report, forecasting a “slow and steady rise in 2019”.

“The second is the impact of the traditional markets on cryptocurrencies. Will bitcoin rise if the S&P drops? On-ramp and off-ramps to purchasing cryptocurrencies will improve in 2019 with Bakkt and Fidelity Group entering the market. However, I do not believe we will see many institutional investors enter for some time yet.”

It comes as a poll by the comparison website found millennials have been the biggest adopters, with 12 per cent of respondents aged 24 to 38 saying they invest in cryptocurrency, which would equate to 661,000 young Australians.

Bitcoin, the original digital currency, was the most in-demand, followed by ethereum and ripple. Overall some 6 per cent of adults, or an estimated 1.1 million Australians, said they invest in cryptocurrency, up from 5 per cent a year ago.

“Millennials are particularly open to embracing crypto in order to accumulate wealth for themselves,” said Finder.com.au and HiveEx.com co-founder Fred Schebesta. “They’ve grown up with digital technology, so it’s little wonder they want to get involved in digital currency. They are looking at investing very differently to their parents.”

Mr Schebesta said lack understanding was one of the bigger barriers to entry, with 11 per cent of respondents saying it was too complicated to trade in cryptocurrency. Older Australians were particularly sceptical, with only 1 per cent of Baby Boomers getting involved.

Frank Chung

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Digital Gold Thesis Shows Bitcoin (BTC) Is Undervalued, Should Be At $10,000

Bitcoin Likely “Massively Undervalued,” Claims Analyst

PlanB, a leading cryptocurrency-friendly researcher on Twitter that has the handle “100trillionUSD” a (likely reference to his/her long-term prediction for the market capitalization of Bitcoin), recently took to his feed to claim that at the moment, BTC could be “MASSIVELY undervalued.”

Citing a comment regarding Bitcoin’s underlying status/value proposition from Satoshi Nakamoto, the crypto godfather, himself, PlanB noted that BTC is similar to a metal “as scarce as gold,” yet unlike physical precious metals, it can be transferred/transported over a digital communications channel in a secure, decentralized, immutable, censorship-resistant, and efficient manner.

Considering traditional valuation models of scarce metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum), like stock-to-flow ratios, PlanB noted that BTC is currently valued at one-third of its fair value, meaning that it should currently be priced at around $10,400 apiece. And, after the 2020 halving, an overtly auspicious event in the eyes of most crypto traders, BTC will be undervalued by ten to one hundred times.

Backing his prediction, the researcher went on to outline stock-to-flow ratios for those who aren’t in the know, explaining that stock is above ground reserves, while flow is the yearly production of the commodity in question. As it stands, gold, which Bitcoin is most aptly compared to out of the four aforementioned metals, has a stock flow of 57, meaning that it would take 57 years for producers at current rates to replicate the current supply of all gold above ground.

As BTC’s stock-to-flow ratio is slated to swell from 25 to approximately 55 (double of 25 plus ever-increasing supply) after the next halving, PlanB seemed adamant that if traditional metrics hold true to this paradigm-shifting asset, the cryptocurrency would be dramatically undervalued at its current valuation of $3,400. In fact, the researcher remarked that if Bitcoin was fairly valued following its halving, it would be valued somewhere between $34,000 and $340,000.

The $333,000 BTC Price Point

Interestingly, the upper-end of that prediction is a price point that a number of leading investors have mentioned previously. Per previous reports from Ethereum World News, Bobby Lee, the co-founder of BTCC and the brother of Charlie Lee, remarked on Twitter that if history repeats itself, BTC will bottom at $2,500, before entering a lull that will last until late-2020. By that time, mere months after the next Bitcoin block halving, Lee noted that the cryptocurrency market would begin its next rally. He elaborated:

[The next rally] would peak out in Dec 2021 at $333,000, and then crash back down to $41,000 in Jan 2023. Something like that?

While Lee didn’t explicitly mention the halving in the aforementioned tweet, he has overtly lauded the event (and Bitcoin’s status as digital gold) previously.

Filb Filb, another leading industry insider, echoed Lee’s analysis, noting that BTC could bottom between $2,500 and $3,100, then subsequently breaking out of its quintuple digit cell to eventually reach $333,000 apiece. In a tweet storm, Filb compiling the Internet’s historical growth cycles, Bitcoin’s adoption curve, among other factors, then outlined why this call makes sense from a fundamental point of view.

Digital Gold Argument

PlanB’s call relating BTC to precious metals comes as cryptocurrency enthusiasts en-masse have begun to realize Bitcoin’s potential as a digital store of value. Anti-establishment figures Max Keiser, for instance, recently stated that after a personal review of Bitcoin’s whitepaper and discussion with cypherpunks, he was sure that BTC is more “peer-to-peer gold” than digital cash. He added that the flagship cryptocurrency is inherently a decentralized store of value that doesn’t require third parties for transactions nor verification, even quipping that those who think otherwise should fight him.

Nick Chong by Nick Chong February 4, 2019

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis – BTC Rebound Approaching Crucial Resistance

• Bitcoin price formed a support base near $3,370 and recovered higher above $3,450 against the US Dollar.

• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance at $3,440 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

• The pair seems to be approaching a couple of important resistances near $3,500 and $3,510.

Bitcoin price is slowly moving higher with positive signs against the US Dollar. However, BTC/USD is now approaching a significant hurdle near the $3,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

This past week, bitcoin price remained in a bearish zone below the $3,500 resistance against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair tested the $3,375 support area on the couple of occasions and later bounced back. The pair moved above the $3,400 and $3,420 resistance levels to start a decent recovery. The price also traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $3,673 high to $3,346 low. There was a positive price action developed above the $3,440 resistance level.

Moreover, there was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance at $3,440 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price spiked above the $3,475 resistance level, but it remained well below the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Besides, there was no test of the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $3,673 high to $3,346 low. Buyers failed to clear the $3,500 resistance area, which ignited bearish moves. At the outset, the price is trading near the $3,440 level, with supports near $3,420 and $3,400. If there is a downside break below $3,400, the price is likely to test the $3,350 and $3,320 levels.

Looking at the chart, BTC price is clearly facing a solid resistance near the $3,500 level and the 100 SMA. As long as the price is trading below $3,500, there is a risk of a downside break in the near term.
 

Technical indicators

4-hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slightly placed in the bullish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently well above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $3,400

Major Resistance Level – $3,500

AAYUSH JINDAL | FEBRUARY 3, 2019 | 5:00 AM

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin – The Bears Fight back to Drag Bitcoin to sub-$3,500

It’s back in the red and after a 6th consecutively monthly loss, can Bitcoin avoid sub-$3,000 levels?

Bitcoin fell by 0.73% on Thursday, partially reversing a 1.48% rise from Wednesday, to end the day at $3,503.8.

For the month of January, Bitcoin fell by 8.58% and for the bears, the monthly loss was a 6th consecutive monthly in the red, with Bitcoin seeing monthly gains in just 3 of the last 13 months.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rally to an intraday high $3,574.8, breaking through the first major resistance level at $3,569.33 before hitting reverse.

Sliding through to the early evening, Bitcoin fell to an intraday low $3,482.1 before finding support to move back through to $3,500 levels by the day’s end. Bitcoin managed to steer clear of the first major support level at $3,470.53 in spite of the reversal, with sub-$3,500 support continuing to limit the damage.

Elsewhere amongst the top 10 cryptos, there were no buck-trending moves on the day, with Tron seeing the heaviest losses on Thursday, sliding by 7.44% to eat into January’s gains.

The negative sentiment even weighed on Ripple’s XRP that had bounced on Wednesday on news of SWIFT adopting R3’s platform for global payments on a trial basis.

For January, it wasn’t a great month for the majors. Stellar’s Lumen saw the heaviest losses, down by 26.64%. Bitcoin Cash SV and Bitcoin Cash ABC were close behind, the pair down by 25.21% and by 24.03% respectively.

Ethereum managed to hold onto $100 levels, but a 19% slide in the month will leave it on the defensive going into February.

Bucking the trend through the month were Litecoin, which gained 4.9% and Tron’s TRX, which trailblazed its way through January with a 33.3% rally. It could have been a lot more had it not been for Thursday’s sell-off.

On the news front, there was very little driving the cryptomarket through the day, with even the news of VanEck resubmitting its Bitcoin ETF application providing little support. The reason for withdrawing had been the U.S government shutdown, rather than any material issues with the application, so there was very little reason for the market to respond.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.73% to $3,478.2. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin slide from a morning high $3,513.4 to a low $3,462.2. The pullback saw Bitcoin call on support at the first major support level at $3,465.67 before steadying, the morning high having come up well short of the first major resistance level at $3,558.37.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $3,513.4 to $3,520 levels would support a run at the first major resistance level at 3,558.37. We can expect Bitcoin to continue to face plenty of resistance at $3,500 to pin Bitcoin back from a breakout to $3,600 levels on the day. For the bulls, a move back through to $3,500 would be needed and sentiment across the broader market will also need to shift to support a recovery.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Bitcoin fall deeper into the red. A fall through the first major support level at $3,465.67 could see Bitcoin call on support at the second major support level at $3,427.53 before any recovery. We would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of sub-$3,400 levels on the day, barring a crypto meltdown event.

Bob Mason

42 minutes ago (Feb 01, 2019 4:

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Fidelity’s Bitcoin Custody Service Could Launch This March

Fidelity Investments, one of the world’s largest asset managers, is breaking into bitcoin custody.

According to a recent report from Bloomberg, three people “with knowledge on the matter” from firms in contact with Fidelity have said that the company is tentatively planning to launch a custody service for bitcoin in March.

This move would fall in line with the company’s recent pushes toward the crypto space. Last October, Fidelity announced the creation of a platform for institutional traders to invest in cryptocurrencies, using over-the-counter trading and cold storage to ensure the security of the various assets.

As the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year is well underway, Fidelity is making moves to turn this proposal into reality. These sources claim that bitcoin will naturally be the first crypto asset offered on the platform, though “ether custody is expected to be next.”

Fidelity did comment directly on the imminent plans for this custody service, although they made no guarantees of the projected launch date. “We are currently serving a select set of eligible clients as we continue to build our initial solutions,” they said. “Over the next several months, we will thoughtfully engage with and prioritize prospective clients based on needs, jurisdiction and other factors.”

Custody is a commonplace service in the world of markets but is significantly less common in the crypto asset investment space at the institutional level. Relying on third-party actors to protect securities from the risk of theft or fraud, most crypto custody takes place within the realm of startups. With the recent announcement that New York state will condone crypto custody, however, many financial banks are looking to get in on the action.

An institutional custody service from a titanic asset manager like Fidelity, which deals with trillions of dollars of properties, could give a boost to bitcoin’s slow progress with Wall Street.

This article originally appeared on Bitcoin Magazine.

January 30, 2019

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin – Finally some Green on the Board. But Can It Hold?

Is $3,500 the new line in the sand for Bitcoin? A breakout through to $3,550 levels would certainly ease the pressure…

Bitcoin slipped by 0.66% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 2.65% slide, to end the day at $3,477.9.

A start of a day move through to an intraday high $3,517.5 failed to draw in sidelined investors, with Bitcoin coming up short of the first major resistance level at $3,584.77 before hitting reverse.

Tracking the broader market through much of the day, Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $3,432.17 to a mid-morning intraday low $3,422 before finding support.

Bitcoin managed to break back through to $3,500 levels with an afternoon high $3,504.4 before falling back through to $3,400 levels and the lowest end of day price since 16th December’s $3,301.5.

Elsewhere amongst the top 10 cryptos, it wasn’t all doom and gloom, with EOS and Tron managing to buck the trend through the 2nd half of the day. EOS led the way, gaining 1.63% for the day, with Tron’s TRX not far behind, rising by 1.06%, the pair partially recovering from Monday’s sell-off.

EOS managed to knock Bitcoin Cash off the number 4 spot, by market cap, with Tether taking the number 5 spot to leave Bitcoin Cash down at 6. Litecoin and Tron are battling it out for the number 7 spot and if things don’t get better for Bitcoin Cash, it could be facing the prospects of a number 8 spot sooner rather than later.

The bearish trend through the day came as the majors, with the exception of EOS and Tron, failed to break back through to key levels following the morning sell-off. There was no particularly negative news hitting the crypto wires to drive the reversal.

On the news front, a positive for Bitcoin and the broader market should be news of Fidelity looking to launch custody services for Bitcoin, before the end of the first quarter, with services for the broader market to follow. As one of the key issues identified by the SEC, Fidelity is looking to fill a considerable gap in the cryptomarket.

The timing could have been more favorable, with the SEC currently scheduled to announce the outcome to its review of the 8 remaining Bitcoin ETF applications, but following the government shutdown, it wouldn’t be surprising if there was a further delay to the decision. The VanEck withdrawal could have been the right decision should Fidelity deliver on its promise and the markets avoid another high profile theft or fall victim to more price manipulation.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.56% to $3,497.4. Bitcoin managed to avert another crisis by recovering from a start of a day dip to a morning low $3,451.2 to strike a morning high $3,509.4 before easing back. The day’s major support levels were left untested early on, while resistance at $3,500 played a hand in the early hours.

For the day ahead, a hold above $3,470 levels would support another run at $3,500 levels, though sentiment across the broader market would need to materially improve, investors taking a more cautious stance following 3 consecutive days in the red. We would expect Bitcoin to be pinned back from a breakout to $3,600 levels, by the day’s second major resistance level at $3,567.97, any rebound likely to see Bitcoin break through the first major resistance level at $3,522.93 with relative ease.

Failure to hold above $3,470 levels could see Bitcoin return to the red, with a fall through the morning low $3,451.2 bringing the first major support level at $3,427.43 and a visit to $3,300 levels into play before any recovery.

Bob Mason

(Jan 30, 2019 4:18 AM GMT

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin drops further as 2018’s agony keeps going

Bitcoin’s painful 2018 crash continues, with the original cryptocurrency touching the lowest in more than a month on Monday.

Falling as much as 5.2% since the weekend, the largest digital asset in the space dragged the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index to its worst decline in more than two weeks. Ether and Bitcoin Cash both fell more than 10%.

It’s been a disappointing start to the year for crypto investors, who hoped that the pain of the downturn was behind them. More than $400 billion in market value was wiped out in the past 12 months as widespread adoption failed to materialize, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com. The total market capitalisation is now about $113 billion.

Meanwhile, the economics of the industry has come under pressure, with so-called miners finding the average cost of producing Bitcoin was more than its value. More work is being done to identify money laundering using the asset class.

The technical outlook doesn’t bode well for the bulls. Based on the GTI VERA Convergence Divergence Technical Indicator, the largest cryptocurrency just entered a new selling trend today for the first time since mid-November.

The last time a sell signal was sent Bitcoin tumbled about 50% from $6,280 a coin to $3,156 over a nearly two-week span.

Business Tech Staff Writer 29 January 2019

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Wall Street quietly shelves its bitcoin dreams

Squeamish from the start about pursuing profits in one of the darker corners of finance, established firms this year slowed their already halting efforts to make a business out of Bitcoin mania.

While none has thrown in the towel, and some continue to develop a trading infrastructure, most flinched as the value of virtual coins collapsed.

Take Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which sought to position itself at the cutting edge of digital assets that skeptics see mainly as a domain of day traders and anarchists. Progress has been so slow as to be barely noticeable, according to people familiar with its crypto business. Many in the industry now say it was quixotic to have expected last year’s frenzy to translate into a Wall Street crypto offering.

“The market had unrealistic expectations that Goldman or any of its peers could suddenly start a Bitcoin trading business,” said Daniel H. Gallancy, chief executive officer of New York-based SolidX Partners, which hopes to launch a Bitcoin ETF in the US. “That was top-of-the-market-hype thinking.”

Goldman remains a focal point for expectations of an establishment embrace of crypto. The firm was among the first on Wall Street to clear Bitcoin futures and people familiar with the matter said last year it was preparing a trading desk—the bank even provided its bankers to the New York Times for an interview on its plans. After considering a custody service for crypto funds, the firm invested in custodian BitGo Holdings Inc. It’s also offering derivatives on Bitcoin called non-deliverable forwards.

The bank has yet to offer to trade of crypto and has gained little traction for its NDF product, having signed up just 20 clients, according to people familiar with the matter. Justin Schmidt, who was hired to head its digital-asset business, said at an industry conference last month that regulators are limiting what he can do. Still, Goldman plans to add a digital-assets specialist to its prime brokerage division, the person said.

Courtesy- ET Alastair Marsh

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin – Triangle range about to end

• BTC stuck in a triangle trading range that is about to end.

• May continue earlier downward trend after breaking out of the range.

Bitcoin, the poster boy of cryptocurrencies, has been trading in a narrowing range of a triangle for last one month and now seems to be in the process of breaking out of this triangle which may result in BTC continuing its earlier southward journey.

BTC/USD is lower by two cents of a percent on day at $3,549 in just over one percent range for the day. On the six-hour chart of the largest crypto, BTC has been trading in a narrowing triangular range since last one month and is now closing in on breaking out of it, which would mean continuing the earlier downward journey which paused for a while.

This breakdown would also mean BTC would break lower of the $3k mark and may even inch closer to $2k mark.

BTC/USD 360-minute chart:

Manoj B Rawal

FXStreet

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member

Bitcoin (BTC) Long Term Price Forecast- January 26

BTC/USD Long-term Trend: Bearish

• Resistance levels: $7,200, $7,400, $7,600

• Support levels: $3,500, $3,300, $3,100

The BTC/USD pair is now in a bearish trend zone. On January 1, the price of Bitcoin has an opening balance of $3,832.60. The crypto appreciated in value as the bulls took price to the high of $4,218. On January 10, after price retracement, the bears broke the 12-day EMA, the 26-day EMA and price fell to the low of $3,712.80. The crypto fell into the bearish trend zone and became range bound between the levels of $3, 500 and $3,800.

The price of Bitcoin had been fluctuating between these levels and the levels are yet to be broken. Presently, the BTC price is trading at $3,626 as at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line which indicates a sell signal. The crypto’s price is below the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that price is likely to fall.

By Azeez M – January 26, 2019

Alan Zibluk Markethive Founding Member